WEST PHILIPPINE SEA: WAS HE RIGHT OR WRONG?

 

Note: This was written or finished around July 29, 2019. But for unknown reasons, I forgot to post this is on my blog. I think, the topic is still relevant, for Duterte is still the President of the Republic of the Philippines. And the issue involved will not be resolved, even in the near future. That is why I am still posting this.

I’m not really versed on what the UNCLOS says on the about the disputed territorial claims, nor the arbitral ruling, nor what the constitution says about the exclusive economic zone, or traditional fishing rights, or whatever terms that comes up, whenever we talk about the West Philippine Sea issue. What I know is the practicality of the situation, and the historical, most of the time response, of the United States on conflicts which are not directly their problem. The United States is the hope of the once that pursues to reclaim the territories now occupied by China.

But first, who should we really blame for this problem? Is it Duterte, because he is president now? Of course not. He is only 3 years in power. The one who is to blame, goes way back. It is those legislators who kicked out the Americans from Subic. Had the Americans stayed in the Philippines, would the Chinese behave this way? Of course not. Then after kickng them out, there was no effort to modernize the miltary, especially the navy. It was from Aquino, Ramos, Estrada, Arroyo, then again Aquino. Only from the Aquino the son, do they start modernizing, because the Chinese problem is apparent already. It has become too late. We lagged behind, and couldn’t catch up, in the arms race.

And the practicality. We can’t patrol the waters, because we have no or less ships, that can impose our rule there. Courage alone, can’t defend a country, we need weapons. We have less, compared to them. To those who keep blaberring, but we have the Hague Ruling? Yes, but we have no weaponry, ships. The two warships are still in South Korea, and will not come here, until after two years. Yet those two ships, are still not enough to defend it. Its too big a sea, for those two ships to handle alone. We need at least a fleet of them, and a fleet cost billions of dollars, which we can’t afford now and in the future. To upgrade the navy fully, at least the essentials, will take at least 10 years. So what we can do for the time being? Peaceful coexistent and compromise, rather than confrontation and war. War will be more expensive, both in resources and in lives. We should know better. We too, suffered from World War 2.

A statement of Former Justice Antonio Carpio, I don’t know if he still on the Supreme Court, in an interview with Winnie Monsod, that he is depending, in case of war that America will intervene. Yes America, is still a military superpower, and will not be taken over, even by Russia and China, in another 20 years. But would they helped us?

Even with Mutual Defense Treaty that had been signed, between the Philippines and The United States. History suggest, that they will take a back seat first, before responding. A lot of things will happen, as they do nothing first. And China is not a pushover country, that they can bend. US will think twice on confronting China, as to China with confronting US. But it’s a different between the Philippines and China. And China knows this too, that the US will take a back seat first. So Duterte is right, to wait for the right time to confront China, with the ruling that has been granted to us.

To historically proved it, just look at the oldest and strongest ally of the United States, Great Britain. Back in World War 2, Winston Churchill, then the Prime Minister of Britain, lobbied for support and for the US to join him in the war against Nazi Germany. He assumed office in May 1940. Only when did Churchill got his wish? On December 7, 1941. A year and seven months. A lot has happened then. France surrenders, Britain is losing on North Africa, Hitler has attack the Balkans, the Mediterrenean, Britain is being blockaded, and Soviet Union was attacked and is retreating, with the Wehrmacht threatening Moscow. Only when Japan attacked Pearl Harbor, did he help Britain against Nazi Germany. Imagined if the US responded, as Churchill wants it? The thing is, as long as USA can stay out, they will stay out, especially if its against a strong power too, like that of Germany then, and of China now. If that is how they treat their oldest and strongest ally, we are only an ally, and not really an important one, what can we expect from them? United States is not a reliable ally, we can’t depend on them to defend us.

Plus, then and the current leadership of the United States, don’t want confrontation with China. Obama stated, why should we have on pieces of rocks in the sea, referring to the Scarborough Shoal, not an exact quote. And Trump, is on an America First Policy. He is turning inward, although he has some progress with North and South Korean relations, on foreign policy. Plus with the Iran deal. But Philippines is not on the radar on his foreign policy. I don’t know if he is going to be re-elected, or a Democrat candidate will take the helms of power, in the White House. But I don’t see any radical change of policy against China, even if its a new leadership. Philippines will still be not as important, as Japan and South Korea.

So for the time being, Duterte is right. Peaceful coexistence, and compromise. We can’t fight them, and our ally is not really dependable. China will one day, face trouble for what their doing to us. But it should not be a trouble that will cause us damage in lives and resources. Let’s keep the peace, and keep quiet for the time being.

ATTACK ON TITAN AND GERMANY

 

The Final Season of the show about to premiere, tomorrow December 7, 2020. The same date when the Japanese Imperial Navy, attacked Pearl Harbor. Is that a coincidence? But I am not gonna talk about that. I am gonna talk about, how attack on titan, resembles Germany, and its not the Germany, that we loved. Its that we all hate, except if your a neo-Nazi. I’m not talking about Nazi Germany only, but also the Germany that fought World War1.

At the start my only view, about AOT is that humans are the real monsterrs. Simple as that. But as the show progress, it became political deep and interesting. Although in Season 3 first half, it became too political, and it got too boring. But as season 3 second half passed. Action came again, and more intrigues. Introducing us to back story that has political intrigues and resemblance, to the infamous Germany that rose in the 1930’s.

In season 3, we have been introduced to these two, great empires in the story. The Eldian Empire, and  the Marleyan Empire. To cut the story short. Eldian is the one ruled by the Titans, until the Marleyan, undermine them and took over their former lands. Leading to the Eldian, to took refuge in the island of Paradis. In which they lock themselves into three walls. Which the story of now took place.

Again its not only the history of Germany that resembles the show, even the architecture, the names of the characters, Eren Jaeger, Erwin Smith etc. You can see German inspiration in every part of the story.

Then there’s a debate on who is the Jew, and the Nazis in comparison to the Eldians, and the Marleyans. Marleyans, definitively is Nazi Germany, and the Germany that fought World War 1. While Eldians, can be both in comparison to history, the Jews that became victims of the Holocaust, and the Nazis that wage war on Europe. And Eren, could be compared to that one infamous dictator, Adolf Hitler. We’ll get to that one by one.

Eldians trapped in the Marleyan Empire, is somewhat treated, the same like the Jews that put to Ghettos in Poland. They are hiding and segregated, from society. The most glaring resemblance, was the armband wore by Grisha Jaeger, to know that he is an Eldian. The prejudice against them, was the same that the Jews suffered, when Hitler took power.

And if you watch the show, when the restorationist movement was revealed and captured. They are brought to the island of Paradis, where, they turned them into mindless Titans. Even that has resemblance in history. The Nazis had this plan called, Madagascar Plan. A plan to relocate the Jewish population of Europe into Madagascar. But it never took place because of the British blockade of the island. And if you will look at the map of Attack on Titan. Its just an inverted world map. And Paradis is Madagascar.

So how will the Eldians in Paradis will be like Nazi Germany. That is where Eren will come to play. Grisha’s memories start being remembered by Eren. The movement, the persecution, they suffered, the secrets. And his last words, on the show is chilling. If we kill our enemies there, will we finally be free?

And as spoilers from the manga are coming out. Eren intends, and are already doing it. Killing the enemies, of Eldia.

Eldia can be compared to Germany, because they suffer the same fate. Both are Great Empires, and both had been humbled by great wars. In our world, we called it, the Great War aka World War 1. In their world, it was called the Great Titan War. And after that wars, resentment by the losing party, and harsh terms by the victors, fueled hate, and wants revenge. That’s were Adolf Hitler come into play, and in their world Eren Jaeger. Both are low ranking officers, in the military. But rose into leadership roles, where they can wage war. And not just war, but a war of annihilation.

So, by examining the history of Germany, between two world wars, and the back story provided by the show. And the pronouncement by the author Hajime Isayama, that it will have a dark ending. I somehow foresaw, how AOT will end. If we will look at history, it will be like, Berlin 1945.

Eren will cause so much destruction, on a brink of winning. But somehow humanity will find a way to defeat the Titans, and ultimately Eren. But the war will end, with the destruction of Paradis. So that the Titans, can never ever threaten humanity. No ending is darker than that. If analysis is right, that is how gonna end. I can’t pinpoint who will die, on the characters, but some are already spoiled in the web. Levi is heavily injured. But again, it will end like Berlin 1945. But again thats just me.