WEST PHILIPPINE SEA: WAS HE RIGHT OR WRONG?

 

Note: This was written or finished around July 29, 2019. But for unknown reasons, I forgot to post this is on my blog. I think, the topic is still relevant, for Duterte is still the President of the Republic of the Philippines. And the issue involved will not be resolved, even in the near future. That is why I am still posting this.

I’m not really versed on what the UNCLOS says on the about the disputed territorial claims, nor the arbitral ruling, nor what the constitution says about the exclusive economic zone, or traditional fishing rights, or whatever terms that comes up, whenever we talk about the West Philippine Sea issue. What I know is the practicality of the situation, and the historical, most of the time response, of the United States on conflicts which are not directly their problem. The United States is the hope of the once that pursues to reclaim the territories now occupied by China.

But first, who should we really blame for this problem? Is it Duterte, because he is president now? Of course not. He is only 3 years in power. The one who is to blame, goes way back. It is those legislators who kicked out the Americans from Subic. Had the Americans stayed in the Philippines, would the Chinese behave this way? Of course not. Then after kickng them out, there was no effort to modernize the miltary, especially the navy. It was from Aquino, Ramos, Estrada, Arroyo, then again Aquino. Only from the Aquino the son, do they start modernizing, because the Chinese problem is apparent already. It has become too late. We lagged behind, and couldn’t catch up, in the arms race.

And the practicality. We can’t patrol the waters, because we have no or less ships, that can impose our rule there. Courage alone, can’t defend a country, we need weapons. We have less, compared to them. To those who keep blaberring, but we have the Hague Ruling? Yes, but we have no weaponry, ships. The two warships are still in South Korea, and will not come here, until after two years. Yet those two ships, are still not enough to defend it. Its too big a sea, for those two ships to handle alone. We need at least a fleet of them, and a fleet cost billions of dollars, which we can’t afford now and in the future. To upgrade the navy fully, at least the essentials, will take at least 10 years. So what we can do for the time being? Peaceful coexistent and compromise, rather than confrontation and war. War will be more expensive, both in resources and in lives. We should know better. We too, suffered from World War 2.

A statement of Former Justice Antonio Carpio, I don’t know if he still on the Supreme Court, in an interview with Winnie Monsod, that he is depending, in case of war that America will intervene. Yes America, is still a military superpower, and will not be taken over, even by Russia and China, in another 20 years. But would they helped us?

Even with Mutual Defense Treaty that had been signed, between the Philippines and The United States. History suggest, that they will take a back seat first, before responding. A lot of things will happen, as they do nothing first. And China is not a pushover country, that they can bend. US will think twice on confronting China, as to China with confronting US. But it’s a different between the Philippines and China. And China knows this too, that the US will take a back seat first. So Duterte is right, to wait for the right time to confront China, with the ruling that has been granted to us.

To historically proved it, just look at the oldest and strongest ally of the United States, Great Britain. Back in World War 2, Winston Churchill, then the Prime Minister of Britain, lobbied for support and for the US to join him in the war against Nazi Germany. He assumed office in May 1940. Only when did Churchill got his wish? On December 7, 1941. A year and seven months. A lot has happened then. France surrenders, Britain is losing on North Africa, Hitler has attack the Balkans, the Mediterrenean, Britain is being blockaded, and Soviet Union was attacked and is retreating, with the Wehrmacht threatening Moscow. Only when Japan attacked Pearl Harbor, did he help Britain against Nazi Germany. Imagined if the US responded, as Churchill wants it? The thing is, as long as USA can stay out, they will stay out, especially if its against a strong power too, like that of Germany then, and of China now. If that is how they treat their oldest and strongest ally, we are only an ally, and not really an important one, what can we expect from them? United States is not a reliable ally, we can’t depend on them to defend us.

Plus, then and the current leadership of the United States, don’t want confrontation with China. Obama stated, why should we have on pieces of rocks in the sea, referring to the Scarborough Shoal, not an exact quote. And Trump, is on an America First Policy. He is turning inward, although he has some progress with North and South Korean relations, on foreign policy. Plus with the Iran deal. But Philippines is not on the radar on his foreign policy. I don’t know if he is going to be re-elected, or a Democrat candidate will take the helms of power, in the White House. But I don’t see any radical change of policy against China, even if its a new leadership. Philippines will still be not as important, as Japan and South Korea.

So for the time being, Duterte is right. Peaceful coexistence, and compromise. We can’t fight them, and our ally is not really dependable. China will one day, face trouble for what their doing to us. But it should not be a trouble that will cause us damage in lives and resources. Let’s keep the peace, and keep quiet for the time being.