WHAT DOES THIS MEANS FOR THE UNITED STATES?

Many are comparing what is happening now in Kabul, on what happened before in Saigon when the US is trying to pull-out from Vietnam, in the 1970's. It's not the same. The US never defeated the Viet-Cong, and North Vietnam in the Vietnam War. They might have caused casualties, and damages. But they never defeated Vietnam. On the other hand, they defeated Taliban, and got the revenge of 911, by killing Osama Bin Laden. But why did the Taliban return, and takeover the capital?

The simple answer is, US fought a two prong war. One in Afghanistan, and one in Iraq. And both ended in failures. The adventures in Iraq, didn't prove anything on the accusations of weapons of mass destruction. And as many people have said, Saddam might be a tyrant, but he stabilizes the region. That even the Saudis, disagrees on the attack on the country. They took out Saddam, and what happened? They unemployed all member of Saddam's political party, from the government. Which is stupid, why? They didn't do that in Germany after World War 2, because they can't. No one will run Germany, if they take out all Nazi party members, in the government. They only took out those who they deemed responsible for war crimes. But they didn't do that with Iraq, those who became unemployed, especially army personnels became the foundation of the ISIS. It destabilizes Iraq, and Syria. And they pulled out, which the other powers, Iran, Turkey, Russia, maybe in a way China, took the opportunity to get in. Which I believe is not in the US foreign policies interest, and their allies to in the region.

Now Afghanistan. As the time progress, and the objectives are fulfilled. I think they lost interest on it in a way. Maybe because of high cost of maintenance, and criticism at home. Then President, declared that they will pull out completely from Afghanistan, with the deadline in September 11, 2021. 

So how did the Taliban took over? How did they get the arms and weapons? I don't know. But what I know is, as US is pulling out, China and Russia are getting in. One Taliban leader, even met the Chinese Foreign Minister in China. Another angle was, US is pulling out, so that China will have these problem Afghanistan. That they may pivot to China, because of the treatment of the Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang. But that's not confirmed, and only the days will tell, if that will happen.

The images of the exodus are horrifying. People in fear of the return, of the Taliban, hang on to planes as it flies. And of course they will fall. Why did it happened? Because they never treated Iraq, and Afghanistan, like the Germany of 1945. Had they done so, we might have a different Afghanistan and Iraq. But some may say, that can't happen because of the culture and the people. I don't think so. Japan are a warring state, and a backward society, before they became like this. China also are a warring state, and a backward society, before they became like this. Even the US is like that in the beginning, and they are a superpower. Everything can be changed. Not even many, only one has to will it, and it will happen.

So why is Kabul not Saigon? US retreated in Saigon, and it remains a superpower nation. One other country retreated in Afghanistan, years ago. That is the Soviet Union. Four years after they collapse. Will the US collapsed in four years? We can never tell. But US is in a free fall decline, as a superpower.

And it also says something, about Duterte's foreign policy, not being to reliant on the US. And to those advocating we forcefully retake lost territories in the West Philippine Sea, because we have the US backing us. First of all, we don't have the force. Second is, we may not have, the US backing us, despite promises. Last time, the Philippines were in trouble because of an Asian power. They flee first. Remember that, and just look what is happening in Afghanistan now.

NORTH KOREA, SUSUNOD NA?

Dahil nga sa mga kaganapan sa Gitnang Silangan, ang mga lider ng bansang North Korea ay tila kinakabahan na. Bigla nga silang pumuri sa mga kabataan sa kanilang bansa, at nagpakita ng kaisahan ng mga namamahala.

Masasabing ang nangyayari sa Gitnang Silangan, ay ang mga pag-aalsa laban sa mga diktador. Gaya na lamang ni Hosni Mubarak ng Egypt, na namuno ng mahigit 30 taon, at ni Muammar al-Gaddafi, na namuno ng 41 taon sa bansang Libya, at nanatili pa rin hanggang sa ngayon. Ang North Korea nga mula ng matatag noong 1948, ay mayroon pa lamang dalawang lider, na pawang mga diktador, ito nga si Kim Il-Sung at Kim Jong-Il na mag-ama.

Bakit nga dapat kabahan ang mga lider ng North Korea? Nito nga lamang mga nakakaraang Nobyembre taong 2010, ay sinalakay ng North Korea, ang Yeonpyeong Islands, isang parte ng South Korea, na nagbunga nga ng masamang reaksyon sa South Korea at maging sa Estados Unidos. Kung sakali ngang mag-alsa ang mga tao sa loob ng North Korea, maaari nga itong samantalahin ng South Korea at sakupin ang kanilang bansa.

Wala ring maraming kakamping bansa at may diplomatikong relasyon ang North Korea. Ang isa sa itinuturing nilang kakampi ay ang China, na kakampi rin naman ng Estados Unidos ngayon. Hindi nga maaasahan ng mga lider ng North Korea ang pagtugon ng China na gaya ng ginawa ni Mao Zedong noon. Sa tingin ko ay wala pang bansa sa ngayon na magtatangkang lumaban sa Estados Unidos sa digmaan.

Hindi nga rin sasapitin ni Kim Jong-Il ang sinapit ni Marcos, na tinanggap with open hands ng Estados Unidos matapos mapatalsik sa Pilipinas bilang pangulo. Dahil hindi kaalyadong bansa ng Estados Unidos ang North Korea, o ng kahit anomang bansa sa mundo ay hindi tatanggapin si Kim Jong-Il. Si Marcos nga ay pro-America, hindi gaya ni Kim Jong-Il, na iniaaral pa sa mga mamamayan niya ang galit laban sa Estados Unidos. Kung sakali ngang mag-aalsa, ay uumpisahan ang mahabang pag-uusig laban kay Kim Jong-Il ng United Nations. Sa madaling salita ay walang pupuntahan si Kim Jong-Il.

Mahina na rin ang  Great Leader ng North Korea, siya nga ay napabalitang may pancreatic cancer.

May posibilidad ba na mangyari din sa North Korea ang mga nagaganap sa Gitnang Silangan? Ang  porsyento nga posibilidad ay napakaliit, dahil ang bansa nila ay nakasarado sa mundo, marahil ay hindi alam ng mga mamamayan nila na nagkakagulo na sa ibang bansa, ni wala nga sigurong Facebook sa North Korea na malaki ang naging tulong sa tagumpay ng mga pag-aalsa sa Egypt. Tanging ang mga nasa pamahalaan lamang ang nakakaalam ng nangyayari sa labas.

Ngunit wala pa ring makakapagsabi kung ano ang mangyayari sa hinaharap. Taon din ang binilang bago sumiklab ang pag-aalsa sa Berlin Wall, sa Germany, sa Czechoslovakia, huwag na tayong lumayo, sa Pilipinas, ilang taon ba ang agwat ng 1972 at 1986?,  ang Libya, ang Egypt, dekada ang binilang bago pumutok ang mga pag-aalsa. Ilang taon na ba ang lumipas mula noong 1948 hanggang sa ngayon?

Isa nga sa mabuting idudulot nito kung sakali man ang North Korea ay magagaya sa mga bansa sa Gitnang Silangan, ay ang posibilidad na maging isa muli ang dalawang Korea, gaya ng nangyari noon. Napag-isa ng Shilla, ang Baekje at Goguryeo sa ilalim nila. May history repeats itself again this time.

Bawat pagtitiis ay may hangganan, walang permanente sa mundo. The only permanent thing in this world is change. Darating at darating din yan, sana.