MISCOMMUNICATION AND MISSED OPPORTUNITIES BY THE DUTERTES

Was anyone confused as well with the substitutions bruhaha? I think, I am not alone in this one. Last week, Inday Sara finally revealed her bid to the vice presidency of the country. Cementing the BBM-Sara tandem finally. And you think it's over? No. Bong Go, also substitutes to run for President, with the endorsement of President Duterte. Plus their are rumors that the President might run as vice president. Which was finally put to rest this Monday, when it was revealed that he will run in Senate.

Historically speaking, Duterte was not the first to downgrade from the highest position after his term. Not going far, was Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. Who, the same with Duterte, ran for office as a member of the House of Representatives in her district, immediately after the expiration of her term as President. But the one, with the most synonymous of situations was Jose P. Laurel. Although he didn't run after his term. For after his term, was the end the war. War meaning World War 2. And he was by Americans and some Filipino's alike as a Japanese corraborator. He ran for Presidency against Elpidio Quirino in 1949, and lost. In 1951 he ran, for senate, garnered the biggest vote. Would Duterte outspot the current no. 1 in the survey, Raffy Tulfo? We'll see.

 

For the longest time, the president warned his daughter, not to gun for the Presidency. Yet in the recent interview, with Banat By, he said that, why ran for VP, when you are no. 1 in the surveys? You said to not run for the presidency, and technically the daughter is just obeying the father. Banat By, worded it wrong, that someone is dictating on him what to do. What Thinking Pinoy is saying, is that there is what they called Cordon sanitaire. Politically it means, non-cooperation, which is not practiced by the Duterte's. Medically, simply means quarantine. Non contact with others. Which I started to believe that there is. I think there are people, within the inner circle of the President that don't want Sara to succeed the Presidency, after her father. That's why, as Thinking Pinoy is implicating, they are preventing the father and daughter to talk, and strategized. And now we had this, Bong Go and Bongbong both running for the presidency. And Inday Sara was for vice presidency.

What was the missed opportunities? History was the missed opportunity. Sara would have been the first elected female President, due to her immense popularity. But what about Cory and Gloria? Cory assumed the Presidency through a revolution. Gloria on the other hand, also through a revolution, and her second term, well. Many believed, she didn't really win that election. And as Susan Roces have said, "you have the stolen the presidency, not once but twice"

Another missed opportunity was, a Duterte after Duterte presidency, had she ran and won. And if she will do well, there would have been another Duterte in the waiting. A Duterte after Duterte, after Duterte. I am not saying that it is for the good, but it was a missed opportunity. 

Many are still saying, that the President are still not showing all his cards. Maybe, or maybe not. We'll see. After the COMELEC finalize the list of the presidential candidates. I will put out a prediction, on who will win this Presidential Elections. Basing on a certain formula. 

LOGICAL RETREAT

I was just gonna talk about Bongbong Marcos possible and logical retreat. But a development has happened just yesterday. Manny Pacquiao has met with the President. But there are no clear statement, on what they talking about. Then Salceda said that, Let Manny announce himself. What does that mean? No one knows for now. But it looks like that, Manny is going to retreat too. 

Chavit Singson predicted that if Manny will fund his own campaign, which is likely, is that he will lose big financially. Just like in the past presidential election. The entire election only revolves around 3-4 candidates. In the past, the predictions only revolves around Duterte, Roxas, Poe, and Binay. Santiago was not even on the equation. Now it only revolves again around 3-4 candidates, Marcos, Robredo and Moreno. And with the recent happenings, Duterte-Carpio. Pacquiao and Lacson is not even on the equation. But unlike Pacquiao, Lacson might have sponsors, or at least use crowd funding. Pacquiao is likely to use his wealth to get his campaign going. And from this point up to the elections, it will be some huge expenditures. And as Chavit pointed out, Pacquaio has no stable source of income, other than boxing. And he retired already. Maybe Pacquiao have heard what Chavit is saying, and talk to the President about possible withdrawal from the race.

Now let's go to Marcos. He has some huge support, yes. Yet he also has huge detractors. And they filed a case for his disqualification. Although his lawyers confidently stated that the case will not push through. His candidacy is walking on a thin ice. If he's really an administration candidate, and a friend of the Duterte's. Why not withdrew, and totally support Inday Sara's bid for Presidency? It's a win-win situation if he do that.

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Many things are still to happen from now on. And let's continue watching the development of this election. I hoped they will heed my advice. Or they are already doing it in silence, and I'm just an idiot blabbering things.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT?

Just this afternoon, a series of withdrawals of candidacies happened in Davao City. First was Sebastian Duterte, withdrawing his bid for the election of Vice Mayor of city, as per instruction of Mayor Inday Sara. Later, the mayor withdrew her bid for the election of Mayor of the City. This only means one thing. The eagle will fly, and go national.

But what will happen next? No one knows at the moment. But the path is narrowed. Either it's Vice President or President. The problem will arise if she goes for President. If she chose that, will Marcos give way?

For the administration to win, he has to. But will he? Because here are the dynamics at play. Marcos has a more solid vote territory than Inday Sara. Balwarte, in Tagalog or Spanish. Inday Sara will not enjoy the Solid Mindanao, that her father carried. Just here in the Davao Region, she made political enemies. Remember Pantaleon Alvarez, who was ousted as the Speaker of the House, with her pulling the strings. He will not carry her, that's for sure.

Scandal wise, Marcos has a lot of dirt with him. A lot of people still hate him, for what happened thirty years ago, or more. Inday Sara on the other hand, has less scandals, compared to him. But the same people that hated Marcos, are hating the Dutertes. 

Another thing that is on play, Inday Sara has options on substitution. Whether it's Senator Bato or Senator Go. All she need to do is jump to PDP Laban, and that's it. Marcos on the other hand, has no one to substitute if she chose to run for VP again. Technically, he can jump to PDP Laban as well. But PDP-Laban is the also the party, that carried Cory Aquino to run against his father back then. It might be awkward for both PDP-Laban and Marcos to join forces. But again, the probability is low, but not zero.

So what will be the combination? Marcos-Duterte, or Duterte-Marcos? Either way, there is very high chance of victory. The worst case scenario, is they both run and no one give way. Then either Leni Robredo or Isko Moreno, snatch the victory. 

For them to win, they need to unite, and need to do it fast. I don't want the other candidates to win, for they are establishment candidates. And others had communist sympathies. So let the North and South unite.

ELECTIONS ARE COMING, AND NO ONE IS TALKING

Remember the Stark words, I am Iron Man. Just kidding. Winter is Coming is the word. Winter is really coming, come winter season. May vary from different parts of the world, but it's somehow always fall Novemberish to Decemberish, along those lines. After that, Spring, which will be in 2022.

Here in the Philippines, another thing is coming this 2022. It's the Presidential Election, and no one is talking how we Pinoy's will do it.

I am particularly worried about this, because of the elephant in the room. COVID-19 and its mutating variants.

I mean, how we will gonna do it with these setting? No one is talking plans about it. If we will gonna do it, the old way, it will be the one big single superspreader event that will happen in our country, within the COVID era.

I heard some rumours though, but it will bring more harm than good. No Elections. 

We should be talking now, the earliest on how we will do it. Or else deadlines will catch up on us, were we can't talk about, and do anything about it anymore. Especially lawmakers.

At least plan, whether we will have or we will have not. If there will be no elections, I'm very skeptical about it. Of course it will extend the terms of elected officials, especially the President. Some may like it and me in some sense, but also I don't.

Let me explain. Leni Robredo, can't win if she runs for President. Sara may not win the Presidency, but  Leni can't win surely. If we will postpone the elections, the terms might be extended, that will also include the term of the Vice President. And judging the form of the President, he can't take the toll of the Presidency for any longer. He's greatly weaken by it. And I hate the idea of him, God forbid, dying at the office. And the Vice President assuming power. The VP is dimwitted in many ways, and might take the country to war with China, if she will assume power. A thing that the Philippines, with all it's problems, can do without. That's why I am against no elections.

If there will be elections, Sara will win. But how we will do it? Should we try like the US did? Mail in ballots. If we will do it, then let's talk about it now. Of course there will also be personal voting, in the precincts. But we can't do it like before. I have voted before, and there will be too many people. And too many people gathering is a superspreader in this era. People might not vote, because of the risk. I suggest that the election day be extended to three days to a week. to prevent superspreader events. But let's talk about it now. Or should we also do a hybrid, hybrid in the sense that there is mail in ballots, and precinct voting. But we should be talking about it now.

Whatever we will do about these elections, talk about it now! So we can implement early, and before everything is too late.

EFFECT ON 2022

This was unexpected. If I am to guess who will die first, among the former Presidents. Of course I will go with the oldest, for that is the natural thing to happen. But Former President Ramos, is still strong as a bull. Or at least with the sick, and that's Former President Estrada, who has been infected by COVID-19. Yes, the predecessor of President Duterte, has been known to have been sicked, for he has loss weight in some of the recent photos. But I didn't expect him to die this fast, or even this time.

Me and my mother, always talks about politics, on guessing who will win the Presidency. Of course the overwhelming guess, is the Presidential daughter, Mayor Sara Duterte. But we are both open to the possibilities, that something might happen, that will alter the course of the race.

In 1983, Ninoy Aquino was assassinated. In 1986, Cory became President. In 2009, Cory died of her illness. In 2010 Noynoy became President. You see the pattern, whenever an Aquino dies, an Aquino becomes President.

But before you come into a conclusion, hear this. Back then, there was no social media. And social media, was overwhelming against the party, which he belongs. And he has not a non-favorable consensus. Which I will not enumerate, for it's inappropriate this time.

And I think, the sisters especially Kris Aquino, doesn't want to be entangled anymore in politics. And I think the former President doesn't even want to be President, but the blabber mouth, at the funeral of their mother, somewhat hinted and pushed him to run. 

If Kris will somewhat run. It would only had an effect on the Liberal Party. Leni Robredo might be forced to not run, to give way for Kris Aquino. Just like Mar Roxas did.

But before you turn your empathy and sympathies into vote. Hear this,this is the party of the administration that cause the WPS debacle. And the one who is pushing for a retake of the territory. I am not against it, but we are not strong enough, and will never be strong enough. And we are not sure on how America will respond. Their actions might led to war. Even if we are not colonized, we will suffer damages, that might be years to repaired, or not at all for that matter. So think first, and don't base your votes on emotions. Stakes are high on the next elections

PRESIDENCY, NOT FOR A WOMAN

 

On January 14, 2021, at the inauguration Skyway Stage 3. President Rodrigo Duterte stated that the presidency is not for a woman. In the context that her daughter, Mayor Inday Sara Duterte, might run as President on the 2022 Presidential Elections, which is only a year away from now. Many reacted that it is sexist, and not necessarily true. But is it?

Historically speaking locally, locally meaning Philippines, how was the leadership of the woman that became Presidents, Corazon Aquino, and Gloria Macapagal Arroyo? The First Aquino Presidency, reversed and stopped all programs of the Marcos Administration, even if it is for the better. Privatized government controlled or owned companies, while the trend in the world at the time, was to nationalize. Deregulate price controls, now companies hike prices at will. And Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, although credited for economic gains, was a corruption ridden administration, that she has reach a negative ratings at the end of her term. And that’s how women had performed at the helm of power in Malacanang.

But was the President talking generally? If that is the case, he is wrong. Many woman leaders around the world, past and present, had led their countries well.

I interpret this in two ways. As the most literal explanation. He is only talking about his daughter only. Discouraging her to run on the highest post on the land. Which is maybe a reverse psychology. Remember when the now sitting President run for it. He vehemently deny until the filing of candidacy, that he wont run for President. Yet he is now our President. He is using strategy, although it’s now too late, because it’s too obvious now that her daughter will run. He is trying to deny that she will run, so that her supporters might support her more.

Another way of interpreting is, he is quipping the Vice President  Leni Robredo, that the job is not for her. Which I believed so, not because she is a woman, but she is just not fit and capable, to do intelligent decisions. And like the Liberal Party always does, with her becoming President, they might overturn government projects, that are maybe for the good. Just like the flood control program in NCR. Aquino, the son stopped it, because Arroyo started it.

And just look how she responded on the recent typhoon victims in 2020. Their houses are destroyed, by the typhoon, because they are made of light materials, yet you will give them light materials, to be destroyed again by other typhoons in the future. Which I believe is a practice in idiocy and stupidity.

If Sara won’t run, and Leni will. I will vote for other candidates. It’s not common sense to put her at the highest office of the land. You may say, the Duterte are lacking in the pandemic response. Both in Davao and on the national level. Everyone is lacking in response to the pandemic. Another name that is ringing the bell, when we talk about national politics, Isko Moreno, who has good programs, in the case of the pandemic, allowed the Traslacion to happened, even if they could be a spike of new cases because of that. Everyone is lacking. Because this pandemic is new, and still developing.

I believe that he is not talking generally, but only talking to those two people.

A FEMALE PRESIDENT IN 2022?

Elections have finished, and everyone who has won is eyeing for a position. There are talks about the speakership of the House of Representatives, and also about The Senate presidency. Others eye for some commitee chairmanship. But no one asks about the obvious. Who will sit in the throne of power in Malacanang, after Rodrigo Duterte? Because let’s face it. The first thing, a politician thinks after an election, is the next election. And the next election, is a much more important election, than this years election. For it is a presidential election, we will elect a new captain that will stir the nation.

Everybody is saying that Mayor Sara, will be the next President after his father. For a number of reasons, that are logical. But for me, it is still too early this time to count the chicks. The eggs are not yet crack. But one thing is for sure, we may have a new female president, after President Duterte step down on 2022. I’m 70% sure of it now. Why? Because of the probability. Too many female candidates might run for office. And some of them, are too obvious in showing their interest. Let’s enumarate them.

Of course, there is the Vice President, Leni Robredo. She has too run, cause if she won’t, although it’s inevitable whether she run’s or not, it will be the end of the Liberal Party. It might cease to exist in the Philippines. The probability of her winning the race, is very low.  Just look at what happen to Otso Diretso, all of them lose the race, which whom she endorsed. It’s just like saying, we don’t want you, and like you. Plus, she does things that ruins her. She attacked the President, with his Hitler remarks, that he might do to drug addicts, what had Hitler did on the Jews. Yet she, when she went to Germany, sits on the tombstones of the Jews, that Hitler had massacred on World War 2.

There is also Grace Poe, who is also not an administration senator, but chose to stay away from the Liberal Party. She was rank second among top 12 senators, that had won this election. She thanked the people for electing, and she is saying that she is not from the administration, she had not compromised her principles. What does she really meant by that? She is announcing her bid for the Presidency.

And a little rant, to some candidates. To those who have won, who want to thank the people for their support. Thank us, by doing your jobs right, and not stealing the taxpayers money. Stop posting posters, thanking the people, that you won! That posters, will just become additional trash that you will never clean by yourself! There is this partylist here in our city, that I will not name, but are connected to the Nograles, everytime they won, they post this thank you posters, congratulating themselves on winning. Are what you doing a bit narcissistic, on your part? Stop doing that. Nakakainis para sa mga tao,at magdadagdag basura lang. Sorry naubusan ng Ingles.

If the number 2 will run, what more about the number one? Cynthia Villar, 20 million plus voted for her. If she can maintain that number, until 2022, then she may have a chance. Although some political analyst say, that being number one in a senatorial election, doesn’t always translate to also winning the presidency. Just as her husband did, on his own bid for the presidency.

And now, the most obvious choice. As some political analyst, and common people say who is most likely to win, Mayor Inday Sara Duterte. The daughter of the sitting President, President Rodrigo Roa Duterte. If their will come into fruition, this will be a first time in the history of the Philippine politics, and election. A parent passing the reins of power, to his child, as if it was inherited, like in the time of kings and emperors. As if it was dynastic. If it will happen though, it will not be dynastic, for it went through the process of election. If she will be the choice of the many, then she will be President.

Although, the people will be the one that will put Sara in the seat of power. There are many outside factors, that will help her, other than us. First is her father, the current president. Although he utter some words, that the earlier his children go out of politics, the better, and the presidency will only destroy her(Sara). The action speaks otherwise. Why is Mayor Sara, on the entourage of the President, when they did some signing of deals in China? She is not needed there. There is no other reason, but preparing her to takeover, at the end of the term. Because let’s be honest. It became a tradition, of newly elected presidents, suing the former presidents and jailing them, for their alleged crimes. Duterte has many crime allegations. If other candidates win, we can’t be sure. But if it’s Mayor Sara, well she is her daughter.

Others are foreign influence, particularly the Xi Dynasty of China. As I said, she was on some of the trips on China, and other countries. China has poured money in our country. So would they chose a new unknown personality, that might derailed their investments? No, they will go to people that is reliable. And who could be the other choice than, an another person named Duterte also.

The other thing is the West Philippine Sea issue. I commend this administration, for handling the issue with prudence, rather than with rashness that may led to miscalculations, miscalculations that may led to war. I think Mayor Sara will continue, the same foreign policy.

The West might also like her. For she is not an extremist, like her father, who hates them. She might have a moderate view of the West, especially of the US.

Those are the only two factors. They can’t really rely on the Military, not because they are traitors, but their loyalty, is on the constitution, rather than the person who is the President. The business community, are split-minded with the Duterte’s. Some like them, most do not. And the Church, specifically the Catholic Church leadership, don’t really support them.

I know, that it looks like, more of a endorsement rather than a prediction. I might vote for her, if she runs. I’m not saying, that there will be no male candidates, that will run on 2022. They will be some. If they continue on pushing Tito Sotto out of the Senate Presidency, then he might be adversarial, and become the new face of the opposition. Plus his answer on the question, that if the senate will still be independent, despite the overwhelming win of the administration senatoriables and reelectionist. His answer was, on every senator’s mind, someone is whispering, you might become president of the Philippines sooner. So that’s why the Senate, will be still independent, despite of. He is a senator too, is someone whispering on him too?

Other names might be Marcos, the son, Pacquiao, etc. But as with Aquino, the son, and Duterte himself run as President. Their are some unforeseen events, that made them run, and somewhat help them win. On Aquino the son, was the death of their mother Cory Aquino, and Kris Aquino’s pronouncement. On Duterte’s part, was the decision of the Supreme Court, to let Grace Poe run. I’m still waiting for the unforeseen events, that might be a game changer. But as long as nothing happens, because of the probability, we will have a female president on 2022.

DUTERTE PUNCH, DUTERTE FINGER

Nitong mga nakakaraang mga linggo, ang Davao City, ang siyudad na tanyag sa Durian, ang siyudad kung saan matatanaw ang Mt. Apo, at ang siyudad na tinagurian ding "Typhoon Free" City, ay naging laman ng mga balita na umalingawngaw sa buong Pilipinas.

Una, dahil sa biglaang, malakihang pagbaha, na naganap sa dako ng Matina Pangi, at mga mga katabing lugar, na kumitil ng maraming tao, sumira ng maraming tahanan, at mga kabuhayan.

Na sinundan nga kaagad ng isang demolisyon sa Barangay Tomas Monteverde, Agdao. Dito nga naganap ang tinatawag ko na "Mayors Punch" with 3 hits or 4, ni Mayor "Inday" Sara Duterte, na sinalo lahat ni Sheriff Abe Andres, ang nanguna sa nasabing demolisyon. Umani nga ang alkalde ng mga papuri, at karamihan ay batikos, mula sa mga hindi taga Davao City, at gayon din naman sa loob ng siyudad.

Hindi nga maaaring hindi makialam ang ama ng siyudad, at ama ng alkalde na si Vice Mayor Rodrigo Duterte. The attacks on her daughter of the columnist and broadcasters infuriated him, pati ng mga pahayag ni Midas Marquez, na "missing" daw diumano si Sheriff Abe, matapos ng araw na iyon, na lumitaw din naman pagkalipas ng ilang araw na buhay, Sa galit nga niya ay bumalalas sa mga media, ang dirty finger, na tinagurian na ng iba na "Duterte Finger". Pati nga ang konsehal Paolo Duterte ay nagpakita rin noon sa mga media. Pinuna nga ito ni CHR Chairman Etta Rosales, verbal abuse daw. Ngayong araw nga na isinusulat ko ito, July 11, 2011, ay sinampahan ng disbarment case si Mayor Sara Duterte.

Ang tanong, mali ba ang aksyon ng mga Duterte? Sa mababaw na aspeto ay mali. Mali ang manuntok, mali ang mag dirty finger.

Ngunit kung titignan mo ito sa malalim na aspeto, Ang tinatawag na "Greatest Good for the Greatest Number" which is democracy, according to what Vice Mayor Rodrigo Duterte said, I quote it in his program "Gikan sa Masa, Para sa Masa(Galing sa Masa, Para sa Masa)". Mas maganda na, na ang nasuntok ay si Sheriff Abe Andres lamang, kaysa mas maraming tao ang nasaktan, sa panig ng mga dinedemolis at ng mga awtoridad, kung nagpatuloy ang demolisyon.

Ito nga rin ang isa sa problema na hindi napapansin ng mga awtoridad. Before every demolition happens against the informal settlers nowadays, ay may mga militanteng grupo, mga komunista sa madaling salita, at sa aking paniniwala, na nanunulsol sa mga nakatira doon na lumaban, tinuturuan ng pagsasanggalang laban sa mga anti riot police. Tignan nyo na lang ang nangyari sa Laperal Compound sa Makati. Hindi ba maaaring sampahan ng kaso ang mga militanteng grupong ito? hindi ba malinaw na rebellion ang ginagawa nila? Magaling lang sila pag may demolisyon, ngunit pagkatapos ng gulo, wala na sila, ni anino wala kang makita. Marami ng demolisyon nang nakaraan na hindi magulo, ngunit ang mga demolisyon ngayon ay mas magulo dahil sa mga militanteng grupong ito.

Unawain na lang natin ang kalagayan ng Mayor ng Davao. Inaasikaso niya ang problema ng mga binaha sa Matina Pangi. Humingi siya ng dalawang oras na palugid sa Sheriff ngunit hindi siya pinagbigyan. Duterte na yan, hindi mo pa pinakinggan. Ikaw man si Mayor masusuntok mo siguro.

Im proud of our Mayor "Inday" Sara Duterte, we will support you all the way.

Dumako naman tayo sa ginawa ni Vice Mayor Rodrigo Duterte, na pag-dirty finger sa mga kawani ng media at mga kolumnista. Iyon nga ay pagpapakita lamang ng galit ni Vice Mayor. Mas maganda ng ganoon.(Ito nga yung parte na natatakot kong isulat pa, ngunit isusulat ko na rin.)

Mas maganda ng ganoon ang paraan, kaysa iba, alam nyo na kung bakit, hindi ko na lilinawin, ang clue ko na lang, si Jun Pala. Sa mga hindi nakakakilala, si Jun Pala, ay malupit na kritiko ni Vice Mayor noong Mayor pa siya. Tatlo o apat na beses tinangkang patayin at napatay sa pinakahuling pagtatangka. Sino nga ang pumatay? Wala akong sinasabi, hindi ko alam, at ayaw kong alamin, kung gusto niyong alamin, tanungin niyo ang mga taga Davao City, at huwag akong isali. Hindi po ako Anti Duterte, Pro po ako.

Karapatan ni Vice Mayor na magalit, araw-arawin ka ba naman sa balita, puro negatibo ang naririnig mo, magagalit ka rin at mapupuno. Darating din ang panahon na hindi na pag-uusapan ito, ngunit nakakatatak na ito sa kasaysayan. The Fist, The Finger, The End.