MY TAKE ON ABE'S ASSASSINATION

 

I don't know the in's and out's of Japanese politics, and what had led the poor guy to assassinate the former Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe. What I will comment about, is the failure of the security detail to protect the former Prime Minister. Which led to him being killed. 

I have seen the video, that NDTV had acquired. As you can see, there was a first shot. And the former PM have even saw his assassin. Then there was the second, as you can see, Abe hold his neck and fell down.

I'm no security expert. I'm a jobless bum. But it is very clear, there is something wrong in the execution of duty, by the security detail. First is, not securing the perimeter. Shinzo Abe is not just a mere politician, he is a former Prime Minister, head of Government of Japan. How can that man, came so close to the former PM. In the US, former presidents are still under the protection of the Secret Service. Again I don't know about Japan, there are bodyguards, but they definitely failed in protecting Abe.

Second, there was a first shot. Abe even looked back to see the commotion. It's right to apprehend the assassin. But shouldn't have they secured Abe? They just let him stood there, until the second shot happened, and Abe fell down. What should have they done, is after that first shot, take Abe away to some secure spot, while it is happening, disarmed that assassin. If they have done that, the former Prime Minister may have been be still with us.

I don't know what will be the implications, of a former politician dying by a gunshot in Japan's politics. Philippines has also it's own episodes of assassinations too. And Filipino's are still polarized if his death, have done good or bad for the country. It had cause a revolution, and toppled Ferdinand Marcos. His wife become President, and also his son 3 decades after that. The only weird thing is, just one full presidential term away. The son of Ferdinand Marcos, became President. They are only separated by Rodrigo Duterte. Yes, if you don't know yet, I am talking about Ninoy Aquino. Whose name might be removed in the airport, in which he was assassinated. Just like Abe, a behind the back shooting.

Again I don't know about the implications, but there will be. In the Philippines, we are feeling the results of the assassination of Ninoy. In the worldwide sense, Gavrilo Princip killing Archduke Francis Ferdinand, launch World War 1, in which leads to the establishment of Communism in Russia, by the help of the Germans. Fascism, because of the unfair treatment of Italy, despite being with Allies. Nazism, because of the unfair and heavy punishment on Germany. And also, Imperial Japan. All of those led us to World War 2, to the Cold War Era, and the wars inside of it, Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, African wars. To the Gulf War era, Yugoslav wars, 911, Iraq, Afghanistan, ISIS, to the present Russia-Ukraine conflict. All because a Serbian, assassinated an Austrian Monarch. There will be implications. I just don't how big or small it is.

THE ONLY WAY FOR THE OPPOSITION, IS TO GIVE MARCOS A CHANCE

 

The opposition has been soundly defeated last election, with both Presumptive President and Vice President, having an overwhelming lead against their co-candidates. And with the Senate composing of 11 pro-administrations candidates winning, and only one from the opposition. Also knowing the trend in the Lower House, most of them, that are not from the ruling party, they will jump ship. 

If the trend would continue, will the opposition survive? It will depend on what they will do in the nearest future. And as of how they are acting already, their future is very bleak. And why did I say that giving Marcos a chance, is the only way?

Just look at the presidency of Rodrigo Duterte. The opposition attack him early on his term. Not giving him a grace period, that he deserved. Investigations started on the alleged extra judicial killings, so on and so forth. How did the voters saw this? They saw the opposition, as an obstructionist, and an usurper opposition. That they will do everything for Duterte to fail, and put Robredo in power. And that became very clear, on the midterm elections, where no candidate from their side won a seat in the Senate. And again this presidential and senatorial elections, only one from them came forth. 

But what will be different from the Marcos and Duterte Presidency? Marcos' mandate was much larger, it was double Duterte's numbers. And I don't know if I'm right, please correct me if I'm not. Marcos is the first majority president, or if not, it's years, decades since the Philippines have one. Again I'm not really sure of that. But I voted on two Presidential Elections, PNoy, whom I did not vote, and PRRD. both of them won by plurality, and not majority. It's the first time that I have seen a majority win, with an overwhelming lead. 

But what does it mean? It means that Marcos has a larger base of voters. It means that he has endorsing power. If the opposition, will antagonize him too early, repeating the same mistake they did with Duterte, they will be politically eliminated. That's why I am saying that they should give him a chance. A chance for what? Everything, but especially to fail, without opposition's insinuation. 

I mean it's like this, if you attacking, hindering him, early on, and he fail. He can now pinpoint the opposition, as the cause of it. And people are inclined to see it that way. However if you don't unnecessarily attack and hinder, then he failed, the blame is on him. Just like Duterte, he wasn't all ups and highs. But he was attacked too early, that the later accusations, didn't matter. Was only seen as useless politicking.

But these strategy has pro's and con's. Pro's if he will fail, the con's if he succeeds, now more people will flock to him. And as of what the opposition is doing lately, they are about to do the same mistakes, they did with Duterte. I'm not saying that there will be no more opposition. That will only happen, if we became a dictatorship, as they feared. I saw the Red Cliff movie, and have come to like this quote, in the context of my blog. From division comes unity, from unity, division. This alliance of the incoming administration, will eventually crumble. But if they will kept it, just a little longer, a certain faction, particularly the Liberal Party, might ceased to exist, or the very least be politically insignificant. That is if they will not heed my advice. But then again, who am I, for them to listen. 

IT'S THE SUPPORTER'S FAULT

 

Although I promised, that I will post a prediction formula, that will see who will win this Presidential Election. It's too obvious that he will win, and he did by an overwhelming lead. I will post the chart, and we'll see if I have time to post it in the near future. Although it's now a hindsight, and not a prediction anymore.

But could VP Leni, have a chance? I think not. Maybe with a smaller lead, by the frontrunner and not this wide. And why I am blaming the supporter's especially, of the defeat of the VP, against the former senator, whom she defeated when they last face each other on an elections? Let's enumerate.

It's not also, that VP Leni has no faults of her own. Like I've said before, politics is a combination of many things. One of them is being subtle, she directly oppose Duterte from day 1. Not giving Duterte a grace period as a newcomer, that past Presidents enjoyed. In turn, his based harden on their support, and saw the opposition as an obstructionist, and usurper opposition. Even if they throw heavy rounds of accusation as the days revealed, the support didn't wind down. And it became very obvious in the midterm elections, that they have little support, and Duterte has massive one.

Adding to that is the grievance, of the supporters, of the now presumptive-President, Bongbong Marcos. Because of the loss of their bet on the VP race, because of an alleged rigging of the results.

Now at the start of the campaign. Why do I blame the supporters? Because they exalted themselves, as the superior voters, for voting the right candidate as they perceived. Calling the others, that are not with them stupids, enablers, etc. Things that are not pleasant to someone's ears. And phrases like, let me educate you. 

First of all, you should exalt your candidate, and not yourselves, meaning the supporters. And second of all, elections is a numbers game. It's not about who has superior voters, in terms of being right, had credentials, knows all, holier than thou, but with the superior number of voters. It's addition, not tribalism. You should have learn your lesson in the midterms, that acting like that, will not win you elections. But you have to repeat the same mistakes of 2019, to this much more crucial 2022 elections. 

And that's what you get. Not that VP Leni deserves it. She, as a candidate, in campaign, is just fine. Messaging, planning, all is good. But the supporters, ruined it for her. I don't think that she can win, but the gap will not be that wide. And it's not all of her supporters. But the extremist and the loud ones. They even ask out of nowhere who is your candidate, and if it's not her, they will try to convert you on the spot. Again with a not so good communication. They dissuade, instead of convince.

Again, not that VP Leni deserves to lose. But those loud and extremist supporters, that are holier than thou, may very well deserved this, not really an upset. She was never in the lead, from the beginning. Especially those who disown relatives, cut ties with friends, just because of this election. Especially your parents, who brought raised you to the world, and you will disown just because of politics? It's not worth it. It's just an election, and they are just politicians, who you may have not touch their hands. Again it's not all of you, on the pink side. But some of you, really ruined her. 

Learn your lesson. Change your approach. And someday you might comeback into power. 

NOT THANKING IS NOT THINKING

Recently President Duterte and Secretary Tugade, unveil new wagons for MRT 7. Then I saw on Tiktok, a commentary from Vice Ganda on his show, Showtime. Because we are paying taxes, there is no need to thank officials, if they are erecting infrastracture like bridges, roads etc. Because it is their duty. Is the comment coincident? I think not. It's public knowledge, that there is no love lost, between ABS-CBN and the Dutertes. And Vice Ganda is a voluntary mouthpiece of ABS-CBN.

But is it right to not thank officials? Even President Duterte said. It is your money, don't thank us. Let's put President Duterte, out of the equation for a while. If you don't thank the person, who did you favor, render you services, you're a bad person. When you pay someone for services rendered, it's a form of thanks. If you don't pay someone, for services rendered, you're a bad person. And you might end up in prison. Duterte is not even asking, and he is rejecting the thanks and the praises. But he is the one who did, along with the people he instructed. So he has the right to reject thanks. But if you are in the receiving end of the projects done, and you're not thankful. Then you're an ingrate.

And imagine this. Imagine he had not done it. Which is not very hard to imagine. Some of the plans that they implement are of Marcos era, and is only implemented now. Now 2021. 1989, when he was ousted in power, how many years have passed? 30 plus effing years! And we are only about to connect the whole country by trains and roads, while other countries are destroying and repairing infrastracture, because of old age. Does President Duterte, deserved a little thanks? Of course, yes.

I know what ABS-CBN is doing. You are swaying the public to not support his candidate this election. But your efforts are in vain. He is not perfect. But he has done more, than the most Presidents, post Marcos, on infrastracture. Even in military weapon's upgrade. So a little thanks, he deserved. Not thanking is a deed done, by bad persons. 

I DON'T UNDERSTAND THIS SPLIT

After the substitutions brouhaha. Now this. Duterte is saying that he will not endorse Marcos' candidacy for the presidency. For he will choose Bong Go. That I understand. But to attack Marcos, with and old song, saying he's this and that. That I don't understand.

Marcos, is not particularly adversarial with Duterte, but very supportive. Even promises to continue, what good Duterte has accomplished. Yet the President, quipped that there is a candidate that who is, or who has used cocaine. The clue was, he has a prominent father. Who among the candidates, has a prominent father, none other than Bongbong Marcos? 

I think this is a very bad move. That the administration has split, rather than unite. The trajectory is, if he will not be disqualified, Marcos will assume the presidency. It's not wise to fight him. I am sure there will be vengeance, for those who had put them down through the years. If the situation will not change, Duterte might be included in the list.

I also don't particularly agree, that he is a weak leader. If not, Ilocandia will give up on the Marcoses. But they don't. And he is on every disaster response, at least according to his Youtube channel. In Yolanda, one of the few national and local officials that has come into region was Marcos. And the other was Duterte.

As Robin Padilla has said. This is only politics. BBM's and DDS are supposed to be allies not rivals. And as he said, the only ones that's will be benefiting this, are the enemies of this administrations. I really think this is an unnecessary fighting, and a very bad move. If it's a fake to lure someone, still not good. And I really don't understand this fight. 

MISCOMMUNICATION AND MISSED OPPORTUNITIES BY THE DUTERTES

Was anyone confused as well with the substitutions bruhaha? I think, I am not alone in this one. Last week, Inday Sara finally revealed her bid to the vice presidency of the country. Cementing the BBM-Sara tandem finally. And you think it's over? No. Bong Go, also substitutes to run for President, with the endorsement of President Duterte. Plus their are rumors that the President might run as vice president. Which was finally put to rest this Monday, when it was revealed that he will run in Senate.

Historically speaking, Duterte was not the first to downgrade from the highest position after his term. Not going far, was Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. Who, the same with Duterte, ran for office as a member of the House of Representatives in her district, immediately after the expiration of her term as President. But the one, with the most synonymous of situations was Jose P. Laurel. Although he didn't run after his term. For after his term, was the end the war. War meaning World War 2. And he was by Americans and some Filipino's alike as a Japanese corraborator. He ran for Presidency against Elpidio Quirino in 1949, and lost. In 1951 he ran, for senate, garnered the biggest vote. Would Duterte outspot the current no. 1 in the survey, Raffy Tulfo? We'll see.

 

For the longest time, the president warned his daughter, not to gun for the Presidency. Yet in the recent interview, with Banat By, he said that, why ran for VP, when you are no. 1 in the surveys? You said to not run for the presidency, and technically the daughter is just obeying the father. Banat By, worded it wrong, that someone is dictating on him what to do. What Thinking Pinoy is saying, is that there is what they called Cordon sanitaire. Politically it means, non-cooperation, which is not practiced by the Duterte's. Medically, simply means quarantine. Non contact with others. Which I started to believe that there is. I think there are people, within the inner circle of the President that don't want Sara to succeed the Presidency, after her father. That's why, as Thinking Pinoy is implicating, they are preventing the father and daughter to talk, and strategized. And now we had this, Bong Go and Bongbong both running for the presidency. And Inday Sara was for vice presidency.

What was the missed opportunities? History was the missed opportunity. Sara would have been the first elected female President, due to her immense popularity. But what about Cory and Gloria? Cory assumed the Presidency through a revolution. Gloria on the other hand, also through a revolution, and her second term, well. Many believed, she didn't really win that election. And as Susan Roces have said, "you have the stolen the presidency, not once but twice"

Another missed opportunity was, a Duterte after Duterte presidency, had she ran and won. And if she will do well, there would have been another Duterte in the waiting. A Duterte after Duterte, after Duterte. I am not saying that it is for the good, but it was a missed opportunity. 

Many are still saying, that the President are still not showing all his cards. Maybe, or maybe not. We'll see. After the COMELEC finalize the list of the presidential candidates. I will put out a prediction, on who will win this Presidential Elections. Basing on a certain formula. 

LOGICAL RETREAT

I was just gonna talk about Bongbong Marcos possible and logical retreat. But a development has happened just yesterday. Manny Pacquiao has met with the President. But there are no clear statement, on what they talking about. Then Salceda said that, Let Manny announce himself. What does that mean? No one knows for now. But it looks like that, Manny is going to retreat too. 

Chavit Singson predicted that if Manny will fund his own campaign, which is likely, is that he will lose big financially. Just like in the past presidential election. The entire election only revolves around 3-4 candidates. In the past, the predictions only revolves around Duterte, Roxas, Poe, and Binay. Santiago was not even on the equation. Now it only revolves again around 3-4 candidates, Marcos, Robredo and Moreno. And with the recent happenings, Duterte-Carpio. Pacquiao and Lacson is not even on the equation. But unlike Pacquiao, Lacson might have sponsors, or at least use crowd funding. Pacquiao is likely to use his wealth to get his campaign going. And from this point up to the elections, it will be some huge expenditures. And as Chavit pointed out, Pacquaio has no stable source of income, other than boxing. And he retired already. Maybe Pacquiao have heard what Chavit is saying, and talk to the President about possible withdrawal from the race.

Now let's go to Marcos. He has some huge support, yes. Yet he also has huge detractors. And they filed a case for his disqualification. Although his lawyers confidently stated that the case will not push through. His candidacy is walking on a thin ice. If he's really an administration candidate, and a friend of the Duterte's. Why not withdrew, and totally support Inday Sara's bid for Presidency? It's a win-win situation if he do that.

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Many things are still to happen from now on. And let's continue watching the development of this election. I hoped they will heed my advice. Or they are already doing it in silence, and I'm just an idiot blabbering things.

ELECTIONS ARE COMING, AND NO ONE IS TALKING

Remember the Stark words, I am Iron Man. Just kidding. Winter is Coming is the word. Winter is really coming, come winter season. May vary from different parts of the world, but it's somehow always fall Novemberish to Decemberish, along those lines. After that, Spring, which will be in 2022.

Here in the Philippines, another thing is coming this 2022. It's the Presidential Election, and no one is talking how we Pinoy's will do it.

I am particularly worried about this, because of the elephant in the room. COVID-19 and its mutating variants.

I mean, how we will gonna do it with these setting? No one is talking plans about it. If we will gonna do it, the old way, it will be the one big single superspreader event that will happen in our country, within the COVID era.

I heard some rumours though, but it will bring more harm than good. No Elections. 

We should be talking now, the earliest on how we will do it. Or else deadlines will catch up on us, were we can't talk about, and do anything about it anymore. Especially lawmakers.

At least plan, whether we will have or we will have not. If there will be no elections, I'm very skeptical about it. Of course it will extend the terms of elected officials, especially the President. Some may like it and me in some sense, but also I don't.

Let me explain. Leni Robredo, can't win if she runs for President. Sara may not win the Presidency, but  Leni can't win surely. If we will postpone the elections, the terms might be extended, that will also include the term of the Vice President. And judging the form of the President, he can't take the toll of the Presidency for any longer. He's greatly weaken by it. And I hate the idea of him, God forbid, dying at the office. And the Vice President assuming power. The VP is dimwitted in many ways, and might take the country to war with China, if she will assume power. A thing that the Philippines, with all it's problems, can do without. That's why I am against no elections.

If there will be elections, Sara will win. But how we will do it? Should we try like the US did? Mail in ballots. If we will do it, then let's talk about it now. Of course there will also be personal voting, in the precincts. But we can't do it like before. I have voted before, and there will be too many people. And too many people gathering is a superspreader in this era. People might not vote, because of the risk. I suggest that the election day be extended to three days to a week. to prevent superspreader events. But let's talk about it now. Or should we also do a hybrid, hybrid in the sense that there is mail in ballots, and precinct voting. But we should be talking about it now.

Whatever we will do about these elections, talk about it now! So we can implement early, and before everything is too late.

ATTEMPT TO DISCREDIT

I just can't ignore the recent quip by Ms. Bernadette Sembrano, against the administration. In a report of the inauguration of LRT 2 East Extension. She, I don't if there is an instruction with her higher ups, emphasize the question, on who pioneered the project. It's like an attempt to discredit the administration, for it's achievement.

Let's look at it this way. Somehow the situation is reversed, and President Rodrigo Duterte, became President first, then succeeded by PNoy. Although even hypothetically, if that happens, PNoy can't follow PRRD. But let's say that had happen hypothetically. What will happen to the somehow good projects that PRRD will start in this hypothetical timeline, and be followed by PNoy?

Back to the real timeline. Gloria Arroyo, pioneered a project for a flood control system, that will divert flood water, directly to Manila Bay, to lessen the floodings in urban areas in Metro Manila. PNoy, stopped the project, because of an alleged corruption. It could have save Marikina, from Ulysses flooding in 2020.

Ferdinand Marcos, built the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant. It has never operated ever since, because the mother, stopped it from doing so. We could have, a much cheaper and stable flow of electricity.

Am I saying all this time, how about continuing good projects, and grab the credit for it? But no, they don't do that. And there are rumours that Kris might run for the highest office of the land. Don't vote her! Their family, and their political party, are doing political vendetta, everytime they take power. At the expense of the comfort of the Filipino people.

So it doesn't matter who started it. What is important, is the one who finished it. And that is President Duterte's legacy. He continued good projects, even if he didn't pioneered it. Unlike his predecessor, who is fond of cancelling.

NAIVETY OR STRATEGY?

If a politician will promise this to you in the campaign for election in office, don't believe him or her. They can't do it. End corruption, and end poverty. Corruption can't be ended, it can only trimmed to certain point that it can't damage the state. Poverty can't be ended, it can only be alleviated. It depends on the person whether he or she wants to get out of it or not. 

Manny Pacquiao said that he will declare war against corruption. And if ever he will decide, maybe to run for a higher office, that will be his advocacy. War. That's a big word. Can you win it? And are you clean of it? Cause if not, the war is already lost. For a man to win against corruption, you have to kill the Devil. And man has no capacity to do it.

With the declaration of war against corruption, he accused the Duterte administration, of having double the corruption, than Aquino's term. In which he earn the ire, of President Duterte. So the President challenged him in his nightly  address to the nation on June 28: 

“So I am challenging him: Point those offices that are corrupt. And let me take care of it. Within one week, I will do something,”

"Then now you say [we’re] corrupt. Where’s the corruption? Which offices?”

“If you fail to do that, I will campaign against you because you are not doing your duty. Do it because, if not, I will just tell the people: Do not vote for Pacquiao because he is a liar,”

And he accept the challenge, the evidence is to follow, and he points out DOH. Then he denies attacking the President, saying that it might be a wrong perception. Accusing things without evidence, is just slander. But it's nearing election season, so I understand.

Another thing he promised, that he will get rid of squatters. He will make houses for them. That's a good idea. But as much as I dont want to agree with Mr. Quiboloy, on most things, but he is somewhat right. Even if you give houses, if the mindset is still wrong, they will lose those houses, and get back where they came from. And even if you have plenty of money. The poor people, are more plentiful. Like I said If a politician promising to end corruption, and end poverty, he can't do it. It's impossible.

Despite all this. I am seeing something. Maybe this is only my political intriguing. Pacquiao and Duterte has been friends for years. And its a cliche, that in politics, their are no permanent friends, nor enemies, just permanent interest. But I think their friendship will not break so easily.

And it's a common knowledge now, that President Duterte, is a brilliant strategist in politics. That's why he is the President of the Philippines. What I am saying is, they might be faking this fight, for a political purpose. 

And what is that? Kicking out, Manny Pacquiao of the party, and pushed him to go the Liberal Party. To thwart of the real opposition. They might make him the standard bearer to run for President, and at the end of the day, all people that will run are Duterte's allies. It might be a speculation today, but even Trillianes are complaining about this possibility. So there might be some truth to it.

Whatever the case is, be wise in voting next election. Think of the high stakes that is on the line. And before I end, I want to go on the contrary against Manny Pacquiao's statement that in leading the nation, it's not all about the brains, but also of the heart. Yes, heart for the people is important. But if you don't have the brains, the one that has, will be the one advising you, to the point of controlling and manipulating you. And where there is manipulation, corruption begins. And you will declare war against corruption? Let's see what happens. 

And before he decides, whether he will run for a higher office or not. I already have a decision. Not vote for him, whatever his decision is. I am not influencing anyone, but it might be better to not vote him again. Starfruit politicians are the worst of politicians.

EFFECT ON 2022

This was unexpected. If I am to guess who will die first, among the former Presidents. Of course I will go with the oldest, for that is the natural thing to happen. But Former President Ramos, is still strong as a bull. Or at least with the sick, and that's Former President Estrada, who has been infected by COVID-19. Yes, the predecessor of President Duterte, has been known to have been sicked, for he has loss weight in some of the recent photos. But I didn't expect him to die this fast, or even this time.

Me and my mother, always talks about politics, on guessing who will win the Presidency. Of course the overwhelming guess, is the Presidential daughter, Mayor Sara Duterte. But we are both open to the possibilities, that something might happen, that will alter the course of the race.

In 1983, Ninoy Aquino was assassinated. In 1986, Cory became President. In 2009, Cory died of her illness. In 2010 Noynoy became President. You see the pattern, whenever an Aquino dies, an Aquino becomes President.

But before you come into a conclusion, hear this. Back then, there was no social media. And social media, was overwhelming against the party, which he belongs. And he has not a non-favorable consensus. Which I will not enumerate, for it's inappropriate this time.

And I think, the sisters especially Kris Aquino, doesn't want to be entangled anymore in politics. And I think the former President doesn't even want to be President, but the blabber mouth, at the funeral of their mother, somewhat hinted and pushed him to run. 

If Kris will somewhat run. It would only had an effect on the Liberal Party. Leni Robredo might be forced to not run, to give way for Kris Aquino. Just like Mar Roxas did.

But before you turn your empathy and sympathies into vote. Hear this,this is the party of the administration that cause the WPS debacle. And the one who is pushing for a retake of the territory. I am not against it, but we are not strong enough, and will never be strong enough. And we are not sure on how America will respond. Their actions might led to war. Even if we are not colonized, we will suffer damages, that might be years to repaired, or not at all for that matter. So think first, and don't base your votes on emotions. Stakes are high on the next elections

SHOULD US GIVE MORE?

 

President Duterte and Senator Lacson, got into bit of word war, because the President told the Americans, that if they want to somewhat extend the VFA, that they should pay more. Senator Lacson, told the President to read the constitution, and the Philippines are not a country of extortionist. But then the President retorted, that the payment is not of money, but of armaments.  And the question is, should the US give more to it’s ally, the Philippines?

You may have heard many times in the past, from many US Presidents in the past, and officials that the Philippines is a strategic ally, of the United States. With the title strategic ally, I think the United States should give more.

I mean, it will be their problem too, if the Philippines remained too weak. We are the chink in the armour, along the strings of allies of United States in the region. Japan is strong, South Korea is strong, Taiwan is strong, Indonesia is strong,  Australia is strong. Only the Philippines is weak in the region. And we are a strategic ally.

And the opposition might, oppose or criticize the idea of Duterte asking more payment, from the United States. Especially the main opposition party, the Liberal Party. Let me remind you, the party of the Aquino, that Ninoy Aquino himself agrees, to these idea of Duterte. He even word it rentals. Watch his statement in this documentary  NINOY: The Heart and The Soul, on 1:13-23-1:14:58 about the US bases at the time. And I will quote some part of it.

“Rather than continue the situation of this nature. May we therefore ask the United States government that they pay us rentals for these bases, so that with these rentals, we can now update the position of our Armed Forces, we can have our own missile batteries, we can have our own missile frigates,we can have our own modern weaponry. Rather than go out with our hands out...” –Ninoy Aquino

So why US should give us more. First of all there is a threat now, unlike before. Before we are only a launching pad for Vietnam. Now there is a threat of the paper dragon. And the US knows that they are really a threat. And if they will not give more to the Philippines. They will have a problem in the West Pacific. China may invade, or force the Philippines to give Pacific positions to them. At least if we are strong, China may think twice. And as an ally, US should help, because it is on their interest too.

But why Duterte is asking for more armaments? It is because we want to have the capability to stand alone. Not to ultimately defeat China, we can’t . We only want to have the capabilty to bloody the nose, so that China might think twice, of confronting us. With our present military capabilities. It can only cause a scratch, and it might be an insignificant scratch.

We want to stand alone, because US has a history of abandoning allies, along  with its western friends. Look at Poland, The Allies, promise help, but left alone to face both Germany and the Soviet Union. Lost their freedom in 1939, and gain it only after 1990. That’s a 51 year freedom lost.

Look at Great Britain, Winston Churchill pleaded with all of his heart, to then US President Franklin D. Roosevelt, to join him in the war against Hitler’s Germany, after the defeat of France. He did not get it until Japan attacks Pearl Harbor, and Hitler declares war on the United States. That’s almost a year of abandonment.

Philippines in World War 2, was left alone by Americans to the Japanese. Although they came back, but it destroyed Manila, and left a lot of jeeps. And it had let the Japanese to do atrocities to Filipinos.

South Korea, Syngman Rhee asked for weapons, for him to wage war in the North. They declined, and US pullout of the South. The North Koreans attacked. The Chinese got involved. And the peninsula is still divided.

South Vietnam, although they start by supporting them. They abandoned them, when things go south.

The United States has this habit abandoning allies. They are unreliable, when it comes to a shooting war. So to that former justice, who is saying that the US will come in, if there will be an incident with China and the Philippines. You are very naive, to think that. You are not a student of history.

So its only right to ask US to give more. All they have given us in the past, are obsolete helicopters, tanks with no guns. C130 scrap of weaponry, Maybe its high time to give us, newer weapons. And I believe the government is willing to pay. We all know that it’s not cheap to manufacture such weapons. But I envy Iraq, in a way. It’s a former enemy, and a conquered state yet it has possesed US weaponry that the Philippines didn’t have. And we are called a strategic ally. Is it because we don’t have oil? Why is that a former enemy have that kind of weapons, but an ally was given scraps? Why is that? Your Excellency, Mr. President Joe Biden, why is that? Why is that?

PRESIDENCY, NOT FOR A WOMAN

 

On January 14, 2021, at the inauguration Skyway Stage 3. President Rodrigo Duterte stated that the presidency is not for a woman. In the context that her daughter, Mayor Inday Sara Duterte, might run as President on the 2022 Presidential Elections, which is only a year away from now. Many reacted that it is sexist, and not necessarily true. But is it?

Historically speaking locally, locally meaning Philippines, how was the leadership of the woman that became Presidents, Corazon Aquino, and Gloria Macapagal Arroyo? The First Aquino Presidency, reversed and stopped all programs of the Marcos Administration, even if it is for the better. Privatized government controlled or owned companies, while the trend in the world at the time, was to nationalize. Deregulate price controls, now companies hike prices at will. And Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, although credited for economic gains, was a corruption ridden administration, that she has reach a negative ratings at the end of her term. And that’s how women had performed at the helm of power in Malacanang.

But was the President talking generally? If that is the case, he is wrong. Many woman leaders around the world, past and present, had led their countries well.

I interpret this in two ways. As the most literal explanation. He is only talking about his daughter only. Discouraging her to run on the highest post on the land. Which is maybe a reverse psychology. Remember when the now sitting President run for it. He vehemently deny until the filing of candidacy, that he wont run for President. Yet he is now our President. He is using strategy, although it’s now too late, because it’s too obvious now that her daughter will run. He is trying to deny that she will run, so that her supporters might support her more.

Another way of interpreting is, he is quipping the Vice President  Leni Robredo, that the job is not for her. Which I believed so, not because she is a woman, but she is just not fit and capable, to do intelligent decisions. And like the Liberal Party always does, with her becoming President, they might overturn government projects, that are maybe for the good. Just like the flood control program in NCR. Aquino, the son stopped it, because Arroyo started it.

And just look how she responded on the recent typhoon victims in 2020. Their houses are destroyed, by the typhoon, because they are made of light materials, yet you will give them light materials, to be destroyed again by other typhoons in the future. Which I believe is a practice in idiocy and stupidity.

If Sara won’t run, and Leni will. I will vote for other candidates. It’s not common sense to put her at the highest office of the land. You may say, the Duterte are lacking in the pandemic response. Both in Davao and on the national level. Everyone is lacking in response to the pandemic. Another name that is ringing the bell, when we talk about national politics, Isko Moreno, who has good programs, in the case of the pandemic, allowed the Traslacion to happened, even if they could be a spike of new cases because of that. Everyone is lacking. Because this pandemic is new, and still developing.

I believe that he is not talking generally, but only talking to those two people.

WEST PHILIPPINE SEA: WAS HE RIGHT OR WRONG?

 

Note: This was written or finished around July 29, 2019. But for unknown reasons, I forgot to post this is on my blog. I think, the topic is still relevant, for Duterte is still the President of the Republic of the Philippines. And the issue involved will not be resolved, even in the near future. That is why I am still posting this.

I’m not really versed on what the UNCLOS says on the about the disputed territorial claims, nor the arbitral ruling, nor what the constitution says about the exclusive economic zone, or traditional fishing rights, or whatever terms that comes up, whenever we talk about the West Philippine Sea issue. What I know is the practicality of the situation, and the historical, most of the time response, of the United States on conflicts which are not directly their problem. The United States is the hope of the once that pursues to reclaim the territories now occupied by China.

But first, who should we really blame for this problem? Is it Duterte, because he is president now? Of course not. He is only 3 years in power. The one who is to blame, goes way back. It is those legislators who kicked out the Americans from Subic. Had the Americans stayed in the Philippines, would the Chinese behave this way? Of course not. Then after kickng them out, there was no effort to modernize the miltary, especially the navy. It was from Aquino, Ramos, Estrada, Arroyo, then again Aquino. Only from the Aquino the son, do they start modernizing, because the Chinese problem is apparent already. It has become too late. We lagged behind, and couldn’t catch up, in the arms race.

And the practicality. We can’t patrol the waters, because we have no or less ships, that can impose our rule there. Courage alone, can’t defend a country, we need weapons. We have less, compared to them. To those who keep blaberring, but we have the Hague Ruling? Yes, but we have no weaponry, ships. The two warships are still in South Korea, and will not come here, until after two years. Yet those two ships, are still not enough to defend it. Its too big a sea, for those two ships to handle alone. We need at least a fleet of them, and a fleet cost billions of dollars, which we can’t afford now and in the future. To upgrade the navy fully, at least the essentials, will take at least 10 years. So what we can do for the time being? Peaceful coexistent and compromise, rather than confrontation and war. War will be more expensive, both in resources and in lives. We should know better. We too, suffered from World War 2.

A statement of Former Justice Antonio Carpio, I don’t know if he still on the Supreme Court, in an interview with Winnie Monsod, that he is depending, in case of war that America will intervene. Yes America, is still a military superpower, and will not be taken over, even by Russia and China, in another 20 years. But would they helped us?

Even with Mutual Defense Treaty that had been signed, between the Philippines and The United States. History suggest, that they will take a back seat first, before responding. A lot of things will happen, as they do nothing first. And China is not a pushover country, that they can bend. US will think twice on confronting China, as to China with confronting US. But it’s a different between the Philippines and China. And China knows this too, that the US will take a back seat first. So Duterte is right, to wait for the right time to confront China, with the ruling that has been granted to us.

To historically proved it, just look at the oldest and strongest ally of the United States, Great Britain. Back in World War 2, Winston Churchill, then the Prime Minister of Britain, lobbied for support and for the US to join him in the war against Nazi Germany. He assumed office in May 1940. Only when did Churchill got his wish? On December 7, 1941. A year and seven months. A lot has happened then. France surrenders, Britain is losing on North Africa, Hitler has attack the Balkans, the Mediterrenean, Britain is being blockaded, and Soviet Union was attacked and is retreating, with the Wehrmacht threatening Moscow. Only when Japan attacked Pearl Harbor, did he help Britain against Nazi Germany. Imagined if the US responded, as Churchill wants it? The thing is, as long as USA can stay out, they will stay out, especially if its against a strong power too, like that of Germany then, and of China now. If that is how they treat their oldest and strongest ally, we are only an ally, and not really an important one, what can we expect from them? United States is not a reliable ally, we can’t depend on them to defend us.

Plus, then and the current leadership of the United States, don’t want confrontation with China. Obama stated, why should we have on pieces of rocks in the sea, referring to the Scarborough Shoal, not an exact quote. And Trump, is on an America First Policy. He is turning inward, although he has some progress with North and South Korean relations, on foreign policy. Plus with the Iran deal. But Philippines is not on the radar on his foreign policy. I don’t know if he is going to be re-elected, or a Democrat candidate will take the helms of power, in the White House. But I don’t see any radical change of policy against China, even if its a new leadership. Philippines will still be not as important, as Japan and South Korea.

So for the time being, Duterte is right. Peaceful coexistence, and compromise. We can’t fight them, and our ally is not really dependable. China will one day, face trouble for what their doing to us. But it should not be a trouble that will cause us damage in lives and resources. Let’s keep the peace, and keep quiet for the time being.

JOE AMERICA

 

I’m calling him Joe America, because he sometime in the past, once called his former boss, on a campaign, Barack America. It has been a subject of jokes of some comedians such as Robin Williams etc.

But kidding aside. Come January, whether Trump like it or not, he will have to step down, and swore into power, the new President of the United States of America, the President Elect, Joe R. Biden. Him winning the elections, was one of the better news, along a stream of bad news this 2020.

I may not agree, of some of Democrat’s policy. But with Trump In office, and his handling of things, especially COVID-19, any Democrat will do, that can replace him. And as Joe Biden, rose as the candidate of the Democratic Party, it’s a good thing, that despite differences is principle within the party, they all come together behind Joe Biden, unlike what happen when Hilary Clinton ran for president.

All I am saying is, Joe Biden is the common sense candidate to be voted, against Trump. Especially with the mishandling of COVID 19 in the United States. With it being still the number 1 country with most cases in the whole world. A common sense, in the presidency, must be put in place, and that is Joe Biden, more than Trump. A leader, that should encourage wearing mask, and not discourage them. And a leader that encourage social distancing, rather than encouraging mass gathering. And again, that is Joe more than Trump.

I can only speak of COVID 19 for Joe Biden, because of the failure of Trump Administrations to tackle the crisis. Even if consecutive administrations before him, put a measure in place, to tackle such crisis, yet cases and deaths skyrocketed. Cause lets face it, many countries in the world are have a declined in number of cases, and deaths cause by COVID. Some have already declared the defeat of COVID 19 in their countries, even China has a lower number of cases now, which where the contagion started. But if the US, will not tackle COVID with seriousness right now, these pandemic, will be prolonged than expected. And don’t put all your hopes, on the vaccines, despite news that it has 95% effective. It will take years, to distribute to all the world, doses of it. And not being so negative, it might still failed as a vaccine. All we need to do is to stop the spread, by following  health protocols. And America is spreading it a lot, in their own country. And if they open up, they might spread again to the world, starting an endless cycle. That’s why I am glad, that Joe Biden won the elections. Even though I am not an American.

But what would be the implications, to my home country, the Philippines. Will it affect the stability of the Duterte Administration? Knowing that his former boss, Barack Obama, is the President of the US, that our President’s hates the most. Will it also had an effect, to the candidacy of the now Vice President Leni Robredo, just like him? I hope not.  We may never know. We hope a cooperation, and not so much intervention from the incoming administration. And we hope, that the Philppines start being treated as an equal and sovereign country, and not as a vassal, or a satellite state. Hoping for good transition, and better run as the new President of the United States. Good luck, and God Bless.

ROBREDO, DRUG CZARINA

Our President has this habit, that when you suggested something, you do it yourself. To give you an example. The late Gina Lopez, just want to take about policies on environment to our President, after he won the presidency. She doesn’t want to be the Secretary of Environment, but because she has ideas, she was put there, as Secretary of Environment.

Now our VP Leni Robredo keeps criticizing the drug war, as a failure of the Duterte Administration. Maybe annoyed by her, he puts her as a co-Chairman of the department that handles the drug situation, I dont remember the name. And after a long bruhaha, she accepted the post.

Now, what do I think I about this? Is it a good idea, or a bad idea? If it is done for political reasons, then Duterte will have political points. She will be humiliated in that post, and will be blame for it. But if she is to have powers to stop policies, that are effective, and proven, then it is bad. I mean, she is like Jon Snow, she knows nothing. In an interview, she said that she called the meeting of his co-Chairman Aquino, to know the data, and where to start. Yet have the audacity to criticize, what’s right and wrong on the drug war by the administration. And I heard rumors, that on her first day in office, she was absent. If its proven to be true, then its not a good start, and sign of bad things to come.

But its too early to judge her. But what I will say is this, one cannot be a drug czarina, if you can’t differentiate the word panag-inip and pangarap, just because they are both translated dreams in English.  Panaginip is dream, that happens to you when you sleep, Pangarap is dream, that also means ambition, aspiration, a thing you want to achieve or have, that you don’t have now. Listen to her interviews, she keeps using Panaginip, instead of Pangarap, even if what she really meant is Pangarap. Some might say, maybe because she is Bicolano, but I don’t think, it has anything to do with it.

One, cannot be a drug czarina, if she can’t do math calculations properly. Search the internet for it.

One, cannot be a drug czarina, if you criticize the President, for the remarks, that he will kill all the drug addicts, just like how Hitler have done it on the Jews, which is wrong in many ways. Yet when you go to Germany, you will sit pretty on the tombs, that Hitler actually killed backed in his days. There is a picture of it find it.

Such, cannot be a drug czarina, nor can be the President of the Philippines. Philippines has suffer too much, from incompetent and corrupt leaders in the past. Never Again.

MINDANAO QUAKE AND INSULTS

I don’t want to delve into the scientifics surrounding this recent quakes that hit Mindanao. Although I personally believe, that what triggers it, is Mt Apo related. But don’t take my belief, believe PHILVOLCS more.

What I will I talk about is this. When Notre Dame Burns, Pray For Paris is the hashtag, when Japan was hit by a typhoon, Pray for Japan. When a forest fire hits South Korea, Pray for Korea. When a quake hit Pampanga, Pray for Pampanga.

But when a quake, hit Mindanao three times or more, land of sinners, retribution, Duterte’s fault. I mean what’s with all these people. As I quote a Korean Variety Show, a Producing Director once said: Emphatizing is important these days. It seems those people have no empathy.

I have no problem with them, attacking government policies, it’s their right. But the recent post they had, are too personal, and too general. Mindanao are land of sinners, that’s why they have been quake, and will be swallowed by the ground.

Then let’s fact check. In Davao, which was the target of most insults, night life is boring. 9:00 pm all establishment that offers drinks, karaoke, will close down, because of the curfew. While in the place where they stand, a curfew was tried to be imposed, was TRO. Night life is where many sins happen. It can never be refuted. So lawfully speaking, Davao City are less sinful than where those people stand.

Then I assess the people. Are Mindanaons that really hateable? I too, are not a native of Mindanao. I was born in Marikina, but migrated to Davao City in the year 2000. Its 2019 now, means that I am living in this city for 19 years. The only thing I hate, in Mindanao is the lack of opportunity to work. But the people here are great. I drop my wallet once on a jeepney, that has the company’s money. The driver goes down to his jeep, just to give it back to me. I was really thankful for him for doing that. Is that the kind people that is supposed to be swallowed up by ground? While in the place where they stand, mahulog ang pitaka mo, bahala ka sa buhay mo !

So what’s the conclusion? Those people are evil, or evil hearted, with no sense of empathy. Walang awa, walang konsiderasyon sa kapwa. Hanggang ngayon, wala ng lindol as of these moment na sinusulat ko ito, maalog lang ng kaunti yung katawan ko, kala ko lumilindol na. Hindi pa mawawala yung mga shakes na iniwan ng lindol. Wala ako doon sa lugar na matinding nilindol, pero nilindol pa rin, hindi mawala yung nginig. Para makabasa ka, ng ganoong mga salita, nakakagalit.

Pero sige na lang, kayo na ang mababait, kami na sa Mindanao, ang masasama, kayo na ang banal, kami na sa Mindanao, ang makasalanan, kaya kami nilindol. Kayo na, ika nga. Alalahanin niyo lang si Carlos Celdran. Kung ano yung huling sinabi niya, at yung nangyari sa kaniya pagkatapos noon. At sawayin nawa kayo ng Panginoon

A FEMALE PRESIDENT IN 2022?

Elections have finished, and everyone who has won is eyeing for a position. There are talks about the speakership of the House of Representatives, and also about The Senate presidency. Others eye for some commitee chairmanship. But no one asks about the obvious. Who will sit in the throne of power in Malacanang, after Rodrigo Duterte? Because let’s face it. The first thing, a politician thinks after an election, is the next election. And the next election, is a much more important election, than this years election. For it is a presidential election, we will elect a new captain that will stir the nation.

Everybody is saying that Mayor Sara, will be the next President after his father. For a number of reasons, that are logical. But for me, it is still too early this time to count the chicks. The eggs are not yet crack. But one thing is for sure, we may have a new female president, after President Duterte step down on 2022. I’m 70% sure of it now. Why? Because of the probability. Too many female candidates might run for office. And some of them, are too obvious in showing their interest. Let’s enumarate them.

Of course, there is the Vice President, Leni Robredo. She has too run, cause if she won’t, although it’s inevitable whether she run’s or not, it will be the end of the Liberal Party. It might cease to exist in the Philippines. The probability of her winning the race, is very low.  Just look at what happen to Otso Diretso, all of them lose the race, which whom she endorsed. It’s just like saying, we don’t want you, and like you. Plus, she does things that ruins her. She attacked the President, with his Hitler remarks, that he might do to drug addicts, what had Hitler did on the Jews. Yet she, when she went to Germany, sits on the tombstones of the Jews, that Hitler had massacred on World War 2.

There is also Grace Poe, who is also not an administration senator, but chose to stay away from the Liberal Party. She was rank second among top 12 senators, that had won this election. She thanked the people for electing, and she is saying that she is not from the administration, she had not compromised her principles. What does she really meant by that? She is announcing her bid for the Presidency.

And a little rant, to some candidates. To those who have won, who want to thank the people for their support. Thank us, by doing your jobs right, and not stealing the taxpayers money. Stop posting posters, thanking the people, that you won! That posters, will just become additional trash that you will never clean by yourself! There is this partylist here in our city, that I will not name, but are connected to the Nograles, everytime they won, they post this thank you posters, congratulating themselves on winning. Are what you doing a bit narcissistic, on your part? Stop doing that. Nakakainis para sa mga tao,at magdadagdag basura lang. Sorry naubusan ng Ingles.

If the number 2 will run, what more about the number one? Cynthia Villar, 20 million plus voted for her. If she can maintain that number, until 2022, then she may have a chance. Although some political analyst say, that being number one in a senatorial election, doesn’t always translate to also winning the presidency. Just as her husband did, on his own bid for the presidency.

And now, the most obvious choice. As some political analyst, and common people say who is most likely to win, Mayor Inday Sara Duterte. The daughter of the sitting President, President Rodrigo Roa Duterte. If their will come into fruition, this will be a first time in the history of the Philippine politics, and election. A parent passing the reins of power, to his child, as if it was inherited, like in the time of kings and emperors. As if it was dynastic. If it will happen though, it will not be dynastic, for it went through the process of election. If she will be the choice of the many, then she will be President.

Although, the people will be the one that will put Sara in the seat of power. There are many outside factors, that will help her, other than us. First is her father, the current president. Although he utter some words, that the earlier his children go out of politics, the better, and the presidency will only destroy her(Sara). The action speaks otherwise. Why is Mayor Sara, on the entourage of the President, when they did some signing of deals in China? She is not needed there. There is no other reason, but preparing her to takeover, at the end of the term. Because let’s be honest. It became a tradition, of newly elected presidents, suing the former presidents and jailing them, for their alleged crimes. Duterte has many crime allegations. If other candidates win, we can’t be sure. But if it’s Mayor Sara, well she is her daughter.

Others are foreign influence, particularly the Xi Dynasty of China. As I said, she was on some of the trips on China, and other countries. China has poured money in our country. So would they chose a new unknown personality, that might derailed their investments? No, they will go to people that is reliable. And who could be the other choice than, an another person named Duterte also.

The other thing is the West Philippine Sea issue. I commend this administration, for handling the issue with prudence, rather than with rashness that may led to miscalculations, miscalculations that may led to war. I think Mayor Sara will continue, the same foreign policy.

The West might also like her. For she is not an extremist, like her father, who hates them. She might have a moderate view of the West, especially of the US.

Those are the only two factors. They can’t really rely on the Military, not because they are traitors, but their loyalty, is on the constitution, rather than the person who is the President. The business community, are split-minded with the Duterte’s. Some like them, most do not. And the Church, specifically the Catholic Church leadership, don’t really support them.

I know, that it looks like, more of a endorsement rather than a prediction. I might vote for her, if she runs. I’m not saying, that there will be no male candidates, that will run on 2022. They will be some. If they continue on pushing Tito Sotto out of the Senate Presidency, then he might be adversarial, and become the new face of the opposition. Plus his answer on the question, that if the senate will still be independent, despite the overwhelming win of the administration senatoriables and reelectionist. His answer was, on every senator’s mind, someone is whispering, you might become president of the Philippines sooner. So that’s why the Senate, will be still independent, despite of. He is a senator too, is someone whispering on him too?

Other names might be Marcos, the son, Pacquiao, etc. But as with Aquino, the son, and Duterte himself run as President. Their are some unforeseen events, that made them run, and somewhat help them win. On Aquino the son, was the death of their mother Cory Aquino, and Kris Aquino’s pronouncement. On Duterte’s part, was the decision of the Supreme Court, to let Grace Poe run. I’m still waiting for the unforeseen events, that might be a game changer. But as long as nothing happens, because of the probability, we will have a female president on 2022.