I DON'T UNDERSTAND THIS SPLIT

After the substitutions brouhaha. Now this. Duterte is saying that he will not endorse Marcos' candidacy for the presidency. For he will choose Bong Go. That I understand. But to attack Marcos, with and old song, saying he's this and that. That I don't understand.

Marcos, is not particularly adversarial with Duterte, but very supportive. Even promises to continue, what good Duterte has accomplished. Yet the President, quipped that there is a candidate that who is, or who has used cocaine. The clue was, he has a prominent father. Who among the candidates, has a prominent father, none other than Bongbong Marcos? 

I think this is a very bad move. That the administration has split, rather than unite. The trajectory is, if he will not be disqualified, Marcos will assume the presidency. It's not wise to fight him. I am sure there will be vengeance, for those who had put them down through the years. If the situation will not change, Duterte might be included in the list.

I also don't particularly agree, that he is a weak leader. If not, Ilocandia will give up on the Marcoses. But they don't. And he is on every disaster response, at least according to his Youtube channel. In Yolanda, one of the few national and local officials that has come into region was Marcos. And the other was Duterte.

As Robin Padilla has said. This is only politics. BBM's and DDS are supposed to be allies not rivals. And as he said, the only ones that's will be benefiting this, are the enemies of this administrations. I really think this is an unnecessary fighting, and a very bad move. If it's a fake to lure someone, still not good. And I really don't understand this fight. 

MISCOMMUNICATION AND MISSED OPPORTUNITIES BY THE DUTERTES

Was anyone confused as well with the substitutions bruhaha? I think, I am not alone in this one. Last week, Inday Sara finally revealed her bid to the vice presidency of the country. Cementing the BBM-Sara tandem finally. And you think it's over? No. Bong Go, also substitutes to run for President, with the endorsement of President Duterte. Plus their are rumors that the President might run as vice president. Which was finally put to rest this Monday, when it was revealed that he will run in Senate.

Historically speaking, Duterte was not the first to downgrade from the highest position after his term. Not going far, was Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. Who, the same with Duterte, ran for office as a member of the House of Representatives in her district, immediately after the expiration of her term as President. But the one, with the most synonymous of situations was Jose P. Laurel. Although he didn't run after his term. For after his term, was the end the war. War meaning World War 2. And he was by Americans and some Filipino's alike as a Japanese corraborator. He ran for Presidency against Elpidio Quirino in 1949, and lost. In 1951 he ran, for senate, garnered the biggest vote. Would Duterte outspot the current no. 1 in the survey, Raffy Tulfo? We'll see.

 

For the longest time, the president warned his daughter, not to gun for the Presidency. Yet in the recent interview, with Banat By, he said that, why ran for VP, when you are no. 1 in the surveys? You said to not run for the presidency, and technically the daughter is just obeying the father. Banat By, worded it wrong, that someone is dictating on him what to do. What Thinking Pinoy is saying, is that there is what they called Cordon sanitaire. Politically it means, non-cooperation, which is not practiced by the Duterte's. Medically, simply means quarantine. Non contact with others. Which I started to believe that there is. I think there are people, within the inner circle of the President that don't want Sara to succeed the Presidency, after her father. That's why, as Thinking Pinoy is implicating, they are preventing the father and daughter to talk, and strategized. And now we had this, Bong Go and Bongbong both running for the presidency. And Inday Sara was for vice presidency.

What was the missed opportunities? History was the missed opportunity. Sara would have been the first elected female President, due to her immense popularity. But what about Cory and Gloria? Cory assumed the Presidency through a revolution. Gloria on the other hand, also through a revolution, and her second term, well. Many believed, she didn't really win that election. And as Susan Roces have said, "you have the stolen the presidency, not once but twice"

Another missed opportunity was, a Duterte after Duterte presidency, had she ran and won. And if she will do well, there would have been another Duterte in the waiting. A Duterte after Duterte, after Duterte. I am not saying that it is for the good, but it was a missed opportunity. 

Many are still saying, that the President are still not showing all his cards. Maybe, or maybe not. We'll see. After the COMELEC finalize the list of the presidential candidates. I will put out a prediction, on who will win this Presidential Elections. Basing on a certain formula. 

LOGICAL RETREAT

I was just gonna talk about Bongbong Marcos possible and logical retreat. But a development has happened just yesterday. Manny Pacquiao has met with the President. But there are no clear statement, on what they talking about. Then Salceda said that, Let Manny announce himself. What does that mean? No one knows for now. But it looks like that, Manny is going to retreat too. 

Chavit Singson predicted that if Manny will fund his own campaign, which is likely, is that he will lose big financially. Just like in the past presidential election. The entire election only revolves around 3-4 candidates. In the past, the predictions only revolves around Duterte, Roxas, Poe, and Binay. Santiago was not even on the equation. Now it only revolves again around 3-4 candidates, Marcos, Robredo and Moreno. And with the recent happenings, Duterte-Carpio. Pacquiao and Lacson is not even on the equation. But unlike Pacquiao, Lacson might have sponsors, or at least use crowd funding. Pacquiao is likely to use his wealth to get his campaign going. And from this point up to the elections, it will be some huge expenditures. And as Chavit pointed out, Pacquaio has no stable source of income, other than boxing. And he retired already. Maybe Pacquiao have heard what Chavit is saying, and talk to the President about possible withdrawal from the race.

Now let's go to Marcos. He has some huge support, yes. Yet he also has huge detractors. And they filed a case for his disqualification. Although his lawyers confidently stated that the case will not push through. His candidacy is walking on a thin ice. If he's really an administration candidate, and a friend of the Duterte's. Why not withdrew, and totally support Inday Sara's bid for Presidency? It's a win-win situation if he do that.

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Many things are still to happen from now on. And let's continue watching the development of this election. I hoped they will heed my advice. Or they are already doing it in silence, and I'm just an idiot blabbering things.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT?

Just this afternoon, a series of withdrawals of candidacies happened in Davao City. First was Sebastian Duterte, withdrawing his bid for the election of Vice Mayor of city, as per instruction of Mayor Inday Sara. Later, the mayor withdrew her bid for the election of Mayor of the City. This only means one thing. The eagle will fly, and go national.

But what will happen next? No one knows at the moment. But the path is narrowed. Either it's Vice President or President. The problem will arise if she goes for President. If she chose that, will Marcos give way?

For the administration to win, he has to. But will he? Because here are the dynamics at play. Marcos has a more solid vote territory than Inday Sara. Balwarte, in Tagalog or Spanish. Inday Sara will not enjoy the Solid Mindanao, that her father carried. Just here in the Davao Region, she made political enemies. Remember Pantaleon Alvarez, who was ousted as the Speaker of the House, with her pulling the strings. He will not carry her, that's for sure.

Scandal wise, Marcos has a lot of dirt with him. A lot of people still hate him, for what happened thirty years ago, or more. Inday Sara on the other hand, has less scandals, compared to him. But the same people that hated Marcos, are hating the Dutertes. 

Another thing that is on play, Inday Sara has options on substitution. Whether it's Senator Bato or Senator Go. All she need to do is jump to PDP Laban, and that's it. Marcos on the other hand, has no one to substitute if she chose to run for VP again. Technically, he can jump to PDP Laban as well. But PDP-Laban is the also the party, that carried Cory Aquino to run against his father back then. It might be awkward for both PDP-Laban and Marcos to join forces. But again, the probability is low, but not zero.

So what will be the combination? Marcos-Duterte, or Duterte-Marcos? Either way, there is very high chance of victory. The worst case scenario, is they both run and no one give way. Then either Leni Robredo or Isko Moreno, snatch the victory. 

For them to win, they need to unite, and need to do it fast. I don't want the other candidates to win, for they are establishment candidates. And others had communist sympathies. So let the North and South unite.

LOWERING OF THE GUARD

I myself had my second dose of my vaccine, just a week ago. Then IATF announced the lowering of quarantine status to alert level 2. I can't particularly remember what the status was before. But after that announcement, a lot of restriction was downgraded.

Examples are, removing of barriers from public vehicles. Allowing of minors to go with their parents in malls. Face shields are now optional, In my city, liquor ban was lifted. But as a considered fully vaccinated, because of my two doses, and a homebody, I'm still scared of what is going on.

As of my writing this, Philippines is still on the 50-60% vaccination rate, with only 30+ percent being fully vaccinated, meaning those who have the second dose already. Which only means, there is still 70% who doesn't have the full vaccine protection, which is not a 100% immunity against COVID. 95% at best, 60+percent the least in efficacy rates. Which means it prevents you getting severe symptoms, hospitalizations and worst case scenario, death.

And children are out now, most of them are not vaccinated yet, and we are freeing them. Letting them go to malls etc.

Don't get me wrong, I am in favor in some of relaxation of restrictions for the economy, but it should be gradual and not drastic. And I'm thinking it is being done, because of the elephant in the room. The coming elections.

The news is like conditioning the masses, that it okay to go out now. Health officials and personnels are skeptic. And knowing Filipino's as the saying goes, kung makalulusot, lulusot. And it's not even lusot. They are giving a lot of allowance and leeway.

Elections are important, but not as important as health. How can you vote when you're in the hospital, or someone you know is. Remember that vaccines are not 100 immunity, and we are not all vaccinated. As a saying that I saw in memes said. The probability are low, but not zero. I hoped that the lowering of the guard, doesn't result in something bad, and I'm wrong. But most of the time, they do. Again, I'm hoping I'm wrong.

Source: 

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