THE ONLY WAY FOR THE OPPOSITION, IS TO GIVE MARCOS A CHANCE

 

The opposition has been soundly defeated last election, with both Presumptive President and Vice President, having an overwhelming lead against their co-candidates. And with the Senate composing of 11 pro-administrations candidates winning, and only one from the opposition. Also knowing the trend in the Lower House, most of them, that are not from the ruling party, they will jump ship. 

If the trend would continue, will the opposition survive? It will depend on what they will do in the nearest future. And as of how they are acting already, their future is very bleak. And why did I say that giving Marcos a chance, is the only way?

Just look at the presidency of Rodrigo Duterte. The opposition attack him early on his term. Not giving him a grace period, that he deserved. Investigations started on the alleged extra judicial killings, so on and so forth. How did the voters saw this? They saw the opposition, as an obstructionist, and an usurper opposition. That they will do everything for Duterte to fail, and put Robredo in power. And that became very clear, on the midterm elections, where no candidate from their side won a seat in the Senate. And again this presidential and senatorial elections, only one from them came forth. 

But what will be different from the Marcos and Duterte Presidency? Marcos' mandate was much larger, it was double Duterte's numbers. And I don't know if I'm right, please correct me if I'm not. Marcos is the first majority president, or if not, it's years, decades since the Philippines have one. Again I'm not really sure of that. But I voted on two Presidential Elections, PNoy, whom I did not vote, and PRRD. both of them won by plurality, and not majority. It's the first time that I have seen a majority win, with an overwhelming lead. 

But what does it mean? It means that Marcos has a larger base of voters. It means that he has endorsing power. If the opposition, will antagonize him too early, repeating the same mistake they did with Duterte, they will be politically eliminated. That's why I am saying that they should give him a chance. A chance for what? Everything, but especially to fail, without opposition's insinuation. 

I mean it's like this, if you attacking, hindering him, early on, and he fail. He can now pinpoint the opposition, as the cause of it. And people are inclined to see it that way. However if you don't unnecessarily attack and hinder, then he failed, the blame is on him. Just like Duterte, he wasn't all ups and highs. But he was attacked too early, that the later accusations, didn't matter. Was only seen as useless politicking.

But these strategy has pro's and con's. Pro's if he will fail, the con's if he succeeds, now more people will flock to him. And as of what the opposition is doing lately, they are about to do the same mistakes, they did with Duterte. I'm not saying that there will be no more opposition. That will only happen, if we became a dictatorship, as they feared. I saw the Red Cliff movie, and have come to like this quote, in the context of my blog. From division comes unity, from unity, division. This alliance of the incoming administration, will eventually crumble. But if they will kept it, just a little longer, a certain faction, particularly the Liberal Party, might ceased to exist, or the very least be politically insignificant. That is if they will not heed my advice. But then again, who am I, for them to listen. 

IT'S THE SUPPORTER'S FAULT

 

Although I promised, that I will post a prediction formula, that will see who will win this Presidential Election. It's too obvious that he will win, and he did by an overwhelming lead. I will post the chart, and we'll see if I have time to post it in the near future. Although it's now a hindsight, and not a prediction anymore.

But could VP Leni, have a chance? I think not. Maybe with a smaller lead, by the frontrunner and not this wide. And why I am blaming the supporter's especially, of the defeat of the VP, against the former senator, whom she defeated when they last face each other on an elections? Let's enumerate.

It's not also, that VP Leni has no faults of her own. Like I've said before, politics is a combination of many things. One of them is being subtle, she directly oppose Duterte from day 1. Not giving Duterte a grace period as a newcomer, that past Presidents enjoyed. In turn, his based harden on their support, and saw the opposition as an obstructionist, and usurper opposition. Even if they throw heavy rounds of accusation as the days revealed, the support didn't wind down. And it became very obvious in the midterm elections, that they have little support, and Duterte has massive one.

Adding to that is the grievance, of the supporters, of the now presumptive-President, Bongbong Marcos. Because of the loss of their bet on the VP race, because of an alleged rigging of the results.

Now at the start of the campaign. Why do I blame the supporters? Because they exalted themselves, as the superior voters, for voting the right candidate as they perceived. Calling the others, that are not with them stupids, enablers, etc. Things that are not pleasant to someone's ears. And phrases like, let me educate you. 

First of all, you should exalt your candidate, and not yourselves, meaning the supporters. And second of all, elections is a numbers game. It's not about who has superior voters, in terms of being right, had credentials, knows all, holier than thou, but with the superior number of voters. It's addition, not tribalism. You should have learn your lesson in the midterms, that acting like that, will not win you elections. But you have to repeat the same mistakes of 2019, to this much more crucial 2022 elections. 

And that's what you get. Not that VP Leni deserves it. She, as a candidate, in campaign, is just fine. Messaging, planning, all is good. But the supporters, ruined it for her. I don't think that she can win, but the gap will not be that wide. And it's not all of her supporters. But the extremist and the loud ones. They even ask out of nowhere who is your candidate, and if it's not her, they will try to convert you on the spot. Again with a not so good communication. They dissuade, instead of convince.

Again, not that VP Leni deserves to lose. But those loud and extremist supporters, that are holier than thou, may very well deserved this, not really an upset. She was never in the lead, from the beginning. Especially those who disown relatives, cut ties with friends, just because of this election. Especially your parents, who brought raised you to the world, and you will disown just because of politics? It's not worth it. It's just an election, and they are just politicians, who you may have not touch their hands. Again it's not all of you, on the pink side. But some of you, really ruined her. 

Learn your lesson. Change your approach. And someday you might comeback into power. 

I DON'T UNDERSTAND THIS SPLIT

After the substitutions brouhaha. Now this. Duterte is saying that he will not endorse Marcos' candidacy for the presidency. For he will choose Bong Go. That I understand. But to attack Marcos, with and old song, saying he's this and that. That I don't understand.

Marcos, is not particularly adversarial with Duterte, but very supportive. Even promises to continue, what good Duterte has accomplished. Yet the President, quipped that there is a candidate that who is, or who has used cocaine. The clue was, he has a prominent father. Who among the candidates, has a prominent father, none other than Bongbong Marcos? 

I think this is a very bad move. That the administration has split, rather than unite. The trajectory is, if he will not be disqualified, Marcos will assume the presidency. It's not wise to fight him. I am sure there will be vengeance, for those who had put them down through the years. If the situation will not change, Duterte might be included in the list.

I also don't particularly agree, that he is a weak leader. If not, Ilocandia will give up on the Marcoses. But they don't. And he is on every disaster response, at least according to his Youtube channel. In Yolanda, one of the few national and local officials that has come into region was Marcos. And the other was Duterte.

As Robin Padilla has said. This is only politics. BBM's and DDS are supposed to be allies not rivals. And as he said, the only ones that's will be benefiting this, are the enemies of this administrations. I really think this is an unnecessary fighting, and a very bad move. If it's a fake to lure someone, still not good. And I really don't understand this fight. 

MISCOMMUNICATION AND MISSED OPPORTUNITIES BY THE DUTERTES

Was anyone confused as well with the substitutions bruhaha? I think, I am not alone in this one. Last week, Inday Sara finally revealed her bid to the vice presidency of the country. Cementing the BBM-Sara tandem finally. And you think it's over? No. Bong Go, also substitutes to run for President, with the endorsement of President Duterte. Plus their are rumors that the President might run as vice president. Which was finally put to rest this Monday, when it was revealed that he will run in Senate.

Historically speaking, Duterte was not the first to downgrade from the highest position after his term. Not going far, was Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. Who, the same with Duterte, ran for office as a member of the House of Representatives in her district, immediately after the expiration of her term as President. But the one, with the most synonymous of situations was Jose P. Laurel. Although he didn't run after his term. For after his term, was the end the war. War meaning World War 2. And he was by Americans and some Filipino's alike as a Japanese corraborator. He ran for Presidency against Elpidio Quirino in 1949, and lost. In 1951 he ran, for senate, garnered the biggest vote. Would Duterte outspot the current no. 1 in the survey, Raffy Tulfo? We'll see.

 

For the longest time, the president warned his daughter, not to gun for the Presidency. Yet in the recent interview, with Banat By, he said that, why ran for VP, when you are no. 1 in the surveys? You said to not run for the presidency, and technically the daughter is just obeying the father. Banat By, worded it wrong, that someone is dictating on him what to do. What Thinking Pinoy is saying, is that there is what they called Cordon sanitaire. Politically it means, non-cooperation, which is not practiced by the Duterte's. Medically, simply means quarantine. Non contact with others. Which I started to believe that there is. I think there are people, within the inner circle of the President that don't want Sara to succeed the Presidency, after her father. That's why, as Thinking Pinoy is implicating, they are preventing the father and daughter to talk, and strategized. And now we had this, Bong Go and Bongbong both running for the presidency. And Inday Sara was for vice presidency.

What was the missed opportunities? History was the missed opportunity. Sara would have been the first elected female President, due to her immense popularity. But what about Cory and Gloria? Cory assumed the Presidency through a revolution. Gloria on the other hand, also through a revolution, and her second term, well. Many believed, she didn't really win that election. And as Susan Roces have said, "you have the stolen the presidency, not once but twice"

Another missed opportunity was, a Duterte after Duterte presidency, had she ran and won. And if she will do well, there would have been another Duterte in the waiting. A Duterte after Duterte, after Duterte. I am not saying that it is for the good, but it was a missed opportunity. 

Many are still saying, that the President are still not showing all his cards. Maybe, or maybe not. We'll see. After the COMELEC finalize the list of the presidential candidates. I will put out a prediction, on who will win this Presidential Elections. Basing on a certain formula. 

LOGICAL RETREAT

I was just gonna talk about Bongbong Marcos possible and logical retreat. But a development has happened just yesterday. Manny Pacquiao has met with the President. But there are no clear statement, on what they talking about. Then Salceda said that, Let Manny announce himself. What does that mean? No one knows for now. But it looks like that, Manny is going to retreat too. 

Chavit Singson predicted that if Manny will fund his own campaign, which is likely, is that he will lose big financially. Just like in the past presidential election. The entire election only revolves around 3-4 candidates. In the past, the predictions only revolves around Duterte, Roxas, Poe, and Binay. Santiago was not even on the equation. Now it only revolves again around 3-4 candidates, Marcos, Robredo and Moreno. And with the recent happenings, Duterte-Carpio. Pacquiao and Lacson is not even on the equation. But unlike Pacquiao, Lacson might have sponsors, or at least use crowd funding. Pacquiao is likely to use his wealth to get his campaign going. And from this point up to the elections, it will be some huge expenditures. And as Chavit pointed out, Pacquaio has no stable source of income, other than boxing. And he retired already. Maybe Pacquiao have heard what Chavit is saying, and talk to the President about possible withdrawal from the race.

Now let's go to Marcos. He has some huge support, yes. Yet he also has huge detractors. And they filed a case for his disqualification. Although his lawyers confidently stated that the case will not push through. His candidacy is walking on a thin ice. If he's really an administration candidate, and a friend of the Duterte's. Why not withdrew, and totally support Inday Sara's bid for Presidency? It's a win-win situation if he do that.

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Many things are still to happen from now on. And let's continue watching the development of this election. I hoped they will heed my advice. Or they are already doing it in silence, and I'm just an idiot blabbering things.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT?

Just this afternoon, a series of withdrawals of candidacies happened in Davao City. First was Sebastian Duterte, withdrawing his bid for the election of Vice Mayor of city, as per instruction of Mayor Inday Sara. Later, the mayor withdrew her bid for the election of Mayor of the City. This only means one thing. The eagle will fly, and go national.

But what will happen next? No one knows at the moment. But the path is narrowed. Either it's Vice President or President. The problem will arise if she goes for President. If she chose that, will Marcos give way?

For the administration to win, he has to. But will he? Because here are the dynamics at play. Marcos has a more solid vote territory than Inday Sara. Balwarte, in Tagalog or Spanish. Inday Sara will not enjoy the Solid Mindanao, that her father carried. Just here in the Davao Region, she made political enemies. Remember Pantaleon Alvarez, who was ousted as the Speaker of the House, with her pulling the strings. He will not carry her, that's for sure.

Scandal wise, Marcos has a lot of dirt with him. A lot of people still hate him, for what happened thirty years ago, or more. Inday Sara on the other hand, has less scandals, compared to him. But the same people that hated Marcos, are hating the Dutertes. 

Another thing that is on play, Inday Sara has options on substitution. Whether it's Senator Bato or Senator Go. All she need to do is jump to PDP Laban, and that's it. Marcos on the other hand, has no one to substitute if she chose to run for VP again. Technically, he can jump to PDP Laban as well. But PDP-Laban is the also the party, that carried Cory Aquino to run against his father back then. It might be awkward for both PDP-Laban and Marcos to join forces. But again, the probability is low, but not zero.

So what will be the combination? Marcos-Duterte, or Duterte-Marcos? Either way, there is very high chance of victory. The worst case scenario, is they both run and no one give way. Then either Leni Robredo or Isko Moreno, snatch the victory. 

For them to win, they need to unite, and need to do it fast. I don't want the other candidates to win, for they are establishment candidates. And others had communist sympathies. So let the North and South unite.

MY AFTER WATCH OF THE MARCOS-GONZAGA INTERVIEW

Before watching the video. I tried my best to put a yellow mindset. To see if I will be offended of the interview that happened between Toni Gonzaga and Bongbong Marcos.

The line of Bongbong Marcos that take hold with me, in that interview is: No, I thank you for taking the trouble. I think Toni couldn't have imagined, that she would be in a lot of trouble, just for interviewing him.

As I watch the video, until the end. Not to criticize Toni, but she didn't conversed much with the former senator. 75% of the video is Bongbong Marcos speaking. Not a really a good conversation to watch.

But, I can't find any offense from what the former senator spoke in this interview. He didn't deny nor mention the abuses. And let's be honest, put yourself in his shoes. Would you brought up, something undesirable, to talk about allegations or proven crimes of your family? You wouldn't. And Toni being polite, wouldn't have brought it up as well, to sour the conversation. 

Toni Talks, is not a political talk show, like that of Real Time with Bill Maher etc. Too many of them to be mention. It can be comparable in genre, to Oprah, etc. Too many too mention again. It's a slice of life, talk show in Youtube. So they will talk about everything, and not focus to much in history.

I think they took offense when Toni ask this:

A lot of people were saying that your father, Ferdinand Marcos, was the best president the Philippines has ever had. And to some people, he was the worst president the Philippines has ever had. But if I were to ask you, what's the best and worst thing about him?

Were they offended with Toni, putting the believers of FM was the best president in a lot, then the otherwise some? Is that it? That will be too petty, if that's it. I can't mention all of the things that may have someone found offense with. If you're a hater, that will be too many.

Again, I will mention it again one more time. If the successor of the Marcos Administration was a good one, we will forgot the Marcoses. But the realities of today, and of history proves otherwise. So the people is being nostalgic, of what they perceive as the better times. 

If this is consider a bad speech, counter it with better speech. And stop bashing Toni for interviewing him. Your party, revolted in 1986 for freedom of speech. And I believe, everyone, I mean everyone, that includes Bongbong, has the right to freedom of speech. If you don't want that, then that's a bad sign. You may have become the very thing you swore to destroy. That's Obi Wan folks.

And as of the moment, again as the saying goes, bad publicity, is still publicity. The very video at the moment I'm writing this, reached 3.6 million views. You have just made Toni and Bongbong more popular. And as an enemy to him, you're not doing the right thing. You don't make your foe popular, if you don't him to be President. You have just unto his hand. 

MARCOS-GONZAGA INTERVIEW

 

Many are talking shit about Toni Gonzaga, for having an interview with Bongbong Marcos. And of course, all of them are leaning to the yellow color of the Philippine Politics.

I haven't watched that interview yet, while writing this piece. But they are saying that the son, boast a lot about his father works for the government. And they are offended by it. And because of that they are attacking Toni Gonzaga, for giving the former senator a platform to speak.

They have been saying all of these years, that the father, former President Ferdinand Marcos, was a dictator, and the one that killed the freedom of speech in the country. And the icons of the yellow politics is the one that restored it. Yet the believers of the party of the yellow, are the one who is acting, to censor if they can, Bongbong Marcos.

As I heard from a podcast before, censoring is not the way to counter bad speech. A way to counter bad speech, is more speech, good speech. But again, yellow believers want to crucified Toni, for interviewing him.

 

Isn't Toni Gonzaga, just doing what a talk show host does, interview people. Diversifying viewpoints. Toni didn't claim her talk show to be political. I saw her channel, and they interview a lot political figures on both sides. She also interview Leni Robredo, and the supporters of the other side, didn't react violently. That is saying something about the party who hates Marcos.

I mean the icons of the Yellow Party, are portrayed to be the icons of Freedom of Speech. But the supporters almost wants censorship. Isn't this an example, of what Harvey Dent have said in the Batman movie, you'll either die a hero, or live long enough to see yourself become the villain. From being believers of free speech, to advocates of censorship.

Don't be mistaken, I believe that there are some abuses, during the time of Marcos. I am not an apologist. But we can't also deny that the President has also done some good, that we are still benefiting to these day. Many are undermining the importance of infrastructure. From Ninoy Aquino to John Oliver. Mockingly saying, can you eat that? No, but the food you are eating can come to your plate, because of good roads.

What I am saying is, had the succeeding administration have done good things for the people, no one will remember the Marcoses. They will be buried in the history, like Hitler. But what followed is, re-privatization of nationalized companies. Selling of industries. Deregulation of goods and services that are supposed to be regulated. Now they are soaring high uncontrollably, to the suffering of the people. Plus incompetency after incompetency like the train mishaps, relief mishaps, and capture operation mishaps. 

The rise and imminent return, of the Marcoses is still the fault of the yellow.

ROBREDO NEXT PRESIDENT?

At natapos nga ang isa sa pinaka nakatutuwa at mapanghating eleksyon sa balat ng Pilipinas. I've participated in the last Presidential Elections in which our current President, Noynoy Aquino is a candidate. But unlike that election, This election had friends, became enemies, families divided, because of the loyalties they have to their candidates. I hope that those families and friendships rekindled, because the elections are now over. This Monday, May 30, 2016 Mayor Rodrigo Duterte, and Congresswoman Leni Robredo, will be proclaimed as the winners of the 2016 Presidential and Vice Presidential Elections.

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Now, let's talk about Leni Robredo. The Vice President Elect. I will not talk about the President Elect, because everyone is talking about him already. With a lead to his closest rival, Bongbong Marcos of only 263,473 votes. Robredo defeats the son of the former dictator. Which is kind of funny for Marcos, because it is somehow repeat of history. A widow of a famous politician, defeating a Marcos. In his father's case, is Cory Aquino.

That concludes the election. But as they say, the end is also a beginning. I watched the movie White House Down. The President of America in that movie, has talked about after winning an election, they are already thinking and preparing for the next one. Although its from a movie, it happens in real life. Just after Aquino won in 2010, They are already grooming Mar Roxas to be next in line. And Jejomar Binay announces his bid very early. None of the two won. They are defeated by a Mayor from a far flung city in the Souther Philippines.

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Also for the first time. The winners of the Presidential and Vice Presidential elections, came from a least expected position. From A Mayor catapulted to the Presidency, and a congress representative, to the Vice-Presidency. Although Vice-President Binay, was a mayor too before he became a Vice President. But he was a Mayor in the National Capital Region. It's always, if not most of the time, the candidates or winners, will come from the Senate, or someone who work in the Cabinet. Like Ramos, who was the Chief of Staff in Cory's Administration before he became President. Estrada and Arroyo, who were former Senators before they became Vice-Presidents. And Aquino, who is a former Senator before he became President.

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Now let's go to the question. Will she be the next President after Duterte? The only two things that may catapult Robredo to the Presidency are these. If Duterte is to be impeached, and if Duterte dies. And let's pray that the two will not happened. That are the only two options. If she will wait for 2022 for her bid. She wil not win.

The first possibility is that Duterte being impeached. Or as is it called in the internet, PLAN B. But as of my experience. Most of the things said in the internet are not true. They are just fear-mongering, so that people will be vigilant. Like in this election. They said that there are fake ballots that the results will be Roxas if you vote for Duterte. Which turned out to be not true.

And PLAN B is far from being possible now. Because many Congressman had change allegiances and alliances. Many had jump to Duterte's side. And for Duterte to be impeach, it has to pass Congress. And Congress now is in Duterte's control.

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As I said if she wait until 2022, she will not win. One of the reason is Bongbong Marcos. If he will not keep quiet of his accusations of him being cheated at the elections, whether it is true or not. It will affect Leni's bid in the future.

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Plus there are many names that may arouse. Like that of Marcos, Cayetano, Sotto etc. Or an unexpected name out of nowhere. Or if Mayor Duterte is to be successful of his iron fisted disciplinarian style of leadership, that Mayor from Tanauan Batangas, Mayor Antonio Halili may have a chance. Because Mayor Duterte himself set a precedent, from a being a Mayor to being a President.

BINAY KAMUNTIK NA

Napabalita nga kamakailan na mayroon umanong maliit na di pagkakaunawaan sila Former President Erap, at si Vice President Jejomar Binay. Nais kasing magpatayo ng isang palengke sa Maynila, ni ngayon ay Mayor Erap, sa lupang ang nagma may ari ay ang corporation na si Vice Pres. Binay naman ang namumuno.

Ngunit sinabi naman ni Vice President Binay, na nagkabati na raw sila ni Former President. Mabuti na lang at nagkabati sila. Ano nga ang implikasyon kung sakaling hindi sila nagkabati? At bakit kasali sila Mar Roxas at Dating Pangulong Corazon Aquino sa litrato.

Si Mar Roxas nga ang naging pinakamahigpit na kalaban ni Jejomar Binay sa pagkabise-Presidente noong 2010. Lumamang nga lang daang libo si Jejomar Binay noon kay Mar Roxas. At tila sila pa rin ang magiging magkatunggali sa susunod na halalan sa pagka Pangulo naman sa 2016.

Bagamat maraming lumilitaw na pangalan. Si Mayor Rodrigo Duterte ang pinaka matunog na pangalan ngayon, sa lahat ng possible Presidentiables. Pero ayaw rin naman ni Duterte na tumakbo, dahil magulo daw ang posisyong ito. Lumitaw din naman ang pangalang Panfilo Lacson, nang italaga siya na Rehabilitaion Czar ng Yolanda hit areas. Ngunit wala pa ring significanteng malaking nangyayaring pagbabago sa kalagayan ng mga biktima ng bagyong Yolanda. Bagkus ay may mga kontrobersiya pang lumabas, gaya na lamang ng overprice na bunk houses, na wala namang kinalaman ang Rehabilitation Czar doon. Nandiyan din ang pangalang Bongbong Marcos, ngunit ngayon ang pangalan niya ay nadadawit na rin sa PDAF scam. Kaya ngayon ay balik tayo sa uno, Binay VS. Roxas round 2.

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Ngayon ano naman ang kinalaman dito ni Dating Pangulong Cory Aquino, actually wala, patay na siya ng mangyari, ang halalan. Idinikit nga ni Binay ang pangalan niya sa dating Pangulo, upang makasakay sa tinatawag na Cory Magic. Si Senator Chiz naman ay ikinampanya ang tambalang Noy-Bi(Noynoy-Binay). And it suits Binay well, cause he wins the Vice Presidential race.

Ngayon magbalik tayo sa ting tanong, ano ang implikasyon kung sakaling hindi nagkabati at nagkahiwalay ng landas si Mayor Erap, at VP Binay. Balikan din natin ang aking pagkabanggit sa Cory Magic sa taas. So nakuha niyo na ba? Explain ko, hindi nanalo si Binay dahil sa pangalang Binay. Ito ay dahil sa kaugnayan niya sa mga Aquino. Ngayon kung walang suporta si Erap kay Binay, sa susunod na halalan, baka humirap pa ang laban para sa kaniya. Hindi ko naman sinasabi na mananalo si Roxas which I think is impossible. Bagamat maaga pa para magsalita, at gaya rin ng sinasabi ng iba, BILOG ANG BOLA.

Napakahalaga nga ng alyansa ni Binay kay Erap, kung ako kay Binay, siya ang magpakababa at pagbigyan niya si Erap. Nothing to lose kahit saang anggulo tignan si Erap. Sino ang sasama sa imahe ng taga Maynila, Hindi si Erap. Implikasyong Politikal, hindi rin si Erap ang nangangailangan, kundi siya pa ang makapagbibigay. Buti na lang at nagkaayos sila. Kaya nga ang title nito: BINAY KAMUNTIK NA.