THE ONLY WAY FOR THE OPPOSITION, IS TO GIVE MARCOS A CHANCE

 

The opposition has been soundly defeated last election, with both Presumptive President and Vice President, having an overwhelming lead against their co-candidates. And with the Senate composing of 11 pro-administrations candidates winning, and only one from the opposition. Also knowing the trend in the Lower House, most of them, that are not from the ruling party, they will jump ship. 

If the trend would continue, will the opposition survive? It will depend on what they will do in the nearest future. And as of how they are acting already, their future is very bleak. And why did I say that giving Marcos a chance, is the only way?

Just look at the presidency of Rodrigo Duterte. The opposition attack him early on his term. Not giving him a grace period, that he deserved. Investigations started on the alleged extra judicial killings, so on and so forth. How did the voters saw this? They saw the opposition, as an obstructionist, and an usurper opposition. That they will do everything for Duterte to fail, and put Robredo in power. And that became very clear, on the midterm elections, where no candidate from their side won a seat in the Senate. And again this presidential and senatorial elections, only one from them came forth. 

But what will be different from the Marcos and Duterte Presidency? Marcos' mandate was much larger, it was double Duterte's numbers. And I don't know if I'm right, please correct me if I'm not. Marcos is the first majority president, or if not, it's years, decades since the Philippines have one. Again I'm not really sure of that. But I voted on two Presidential Elections, PNoy, whom I did not vote, and PRRD. both of them won by plurality, and not majority. It's the first time that I have seen a majority win, with an overwhelming lead. 

But what does it mean? It means that Marcos has a larger base of voters. It means that he has endorsing power. If the opposition, will antagonize him too early, repeating the same mistake they did with Duterte, they will be politically eliminated. That's why I am saying that they should give him a chance. A chance for what? Everything, but especially to fail, without opposition's insinuation. 

I mean it's like this, if you attacking, hindering him, early on, and he fail. He can now pinpoint the opposition, as the cause of it. And people are inclined to see it that way. However if you don't unnecessarily attack and hinder, then he failed, the blame is on him. Just like Duterte, he wasn't all ups and highs. But he was attacked too early, that the later accusations, didn't matter. Was only seen as useless politicking.

But these strategy has pro's and con's. Pro's if he will fail, the con's if he succeeds, now more people will flock to him. And as of what the opposition is doing lately, they are about to do the same mistakes, they did with Duterte. I'm not saying that there will be no more opposition. That will only happen, if we became a dictatorship, as they feared. I saw the Red Cliff movie, and have come to like this quote, in the context of my blog. From division comes unity, from unity, division. This alliance of the incoming administration, will eventually crumble. But if they will kept it, just a little longer, a certain faction, particularly the Liberal Party, might ceased to exist, or the very least be politically insignificant. That is if they will not heed my advice. But then again, who am I, for them to listen. 

IT'S THE SUPPORTER'S FAULT

 

Although I promised, that I will post a prediction formula, that will see who will win this Presidential Election. It's too obvious that he will win, and he did by an overwhelming lead. I will post the chart, and we'll see if I have time to post it in the near future. Although it's now a hindsight, and not a prediction anymore.

But could VP Leni, have a chance? I think not. Maybe with a smaller lead, by the frontrunner and not this wide. And why I am blaming the supporter's especially, of the defeat of the VP, against the former senator, whom she defeated when they last face each other on an elections? Let's enumerate.

It's not also, that VP Leni has no faults of her own. Like I've said before, politics is a combination of many things. One of them is being subtle, she directly oppose Duterte from day 1. Not giving Duterte a grace period as a newcomer, that past Presidents enjoyed. In turn, his based harden on their support, and saw the opposition as an obstructionist, and usurper opposition. Even if they throw heavy rounds of accusation as the days revealed, the support didn't wind down. And it became very obvious in the midterm elections, that they have little support, and Duterte has massive one.

Adding to that is the grievance, of the supporters, of the now presumptive-President, Bongbong Marcos. Because of the loss of their bet on the VP race, because of an alleged rigging of the results.

Now at the start of the campaign. Why do I blame the supporters? Because they exalted themselves, as the superior voters, for voting the right candidate as they perceived. Calling the others, that are not with them stupids, enablers, etc. Things that are not pleasant to someone's ears. And phrases like, let me educate you. 

First of all, you should exalt your candidate, and not yourselves, meaning the supporters. And second of all, elections is a numbers game. It's not about who has superior voters, in terms of being right, had credentials, knows all, holier than thou, but with the superior number of voters. It's addition, not tribalism. You should have learn your lesson in the midterms, that acting like that, will not win you elections. But you have to repeat the same mistakes of 2019, to this much more crucial 2022 elections. 

And that's what you get. Not that VP Leni deserves it. She, as a candidate, in campaign, is just fine. Messaging, planning, all is good. But the supporters, ruined it for her. I don't think that she can win, but the gap will not be that wide. And it's not all of her supporters. But the extremist and the loud ones. They even ask out of nowhere who is your candidate, and if it's not her, they will try to convert you on the spot. Again with a not so good communication. They dissuade, instead of convince.

Again, not that VP Leni deserves to lose. But those loud and extremist supporters, that are holier than thou, may very well deserved this, not really an upset. She was never in the lead, from the beginning. Especially those who disown relatives, cut ties with friends, just because of this election. Especially your parents, who brought raised you to the world, and you will disown just because of politics? It's not worth it. It's just an election, and they are just politicians, who you may have not touch their hands. Again it's not all of you, on the pink side. But some of you, really ruined her. 

Learn your lesson. Change your approach. And someday you might comeback into power. 

ELECTIONS ARE COMING, AND NO ONE IS TALKING

Remember the Stark words, I am Iron Man. Just kidding. Winter is Coming is the word. Winter is really coming, come winter season. May vary from different parts of the world, but it's somehow always fall Novemberish to Decemberish, along those lines. After that, Spring, which will be in 2022.

Here in the Philippines, another thing is coming this 2022. It's the Presidential Election, and no one is talking how we Pinoy's will do it.

I am particularly worried about this, because of the elephant in the room. COVID-19 and its mutating variants.

I mean, how we will gonna do it with these setting? No one is talking plans about it. If we will gonna do it, the old way, it will be the one big single superspreader event that will happen in our country, within the COVID era.

I heard some rumours though, but it will bring more harm than good. No Elections. 

We should be talking now, the earliest on how we will do it. Or else deadlines will catch up on us, were we can't talk about, and do anything about it anymore. Especially lawmakers.

At least plan, whether we will have or we will have not. If there will be no elections, I'm very skeptical about it. Of course it will extend the terms of elected officials, especially the President. Some may like it and me in some sense, but also I don't.

Let me explain. Leni Robredo, can't win if she runs for President. Sara may not win the Presidency, but  Leni can't win surely. If we will postpone the elections, the terms might be extended, that will also include the term of the Vice President. And judging the form of the President, he can't take the toll of the Presidency for any longer. He's greatly weaken by it. And I hate the idea of him, God forbid, dying at the office. And the Vice President assuming power. The VP is dimwitted in many ways, and might take the country to war with China, if she will assume power. A thing that the Philippines, with all it's problems, can do without. That's why I am against no elections.

If there will be elections, Sara will win. But how we will do it? Should we try like the US did? Mail in ballots. If we will do it, then let's talk about it now. Of course there will also be personal voting, in the precincts. But we can't do it like before. I have voted before, and there will be too many people. And too many people gathering is a superspreader in this era. People might not vote, because of the risk. I suggest that the election day be extended to three days to a week. to prevent superspreader events. But let's talk about it now. Or should we also do a hybrid, hybrid in the sense that there is mail in ballots, and precinct voting. But we should be talking about it now.

Whatever we will do about these elections, talk about it now! So we can implement early, and before everything is too late.